l{"id":1345360,"date":"2024-11-08T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/odour-of-oil-and-return-of-trump-hang-heavy-over-cop29-in-baku\/"},"modified":"2024-11-08T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T06:00:00","slug":"odour-of-oil-and-return-of-trump-hang-heavy-over-cop29-in-baku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/odour-of-oil-and-return-of-trump-hang-heavy-over-cop29-in-baku\/","title":{"rendered":"Odour of oil and return of Trump hang heavy over Cop29 in Baku"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- newscabal uk text -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:inline-block;width:728px;height:90px\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8162386273903324\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3688094655\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\"><span style=\"color:var(--drop-cap);font-weight:500;\" class=\"dcr-15rw6c2\">M<\/span>ore than 100 heads of state and government are expected to land in Baku, the capital of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/azerbaijan\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Azerbaijan<\/a>, over the next few days and the first thing they are likely to notice is the smell of oil. The odour hangs heavy in the air, evidence of the abundance of fossil fuels in this small country on the shores of the Caspian Sea.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Flaring from refineries lights up the night sky, and the city is dotted with diminutive \u201cnodding donkey\u201d oil wells raising and lowering their pistons as they draw from the earth. Even the national symbol is a gas flame, epitomised in the shape of three skyscrapers that tower over the city.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Azerbaijan has been built on oil since the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/2024\/jul\/29\/worlds-first-oil-town-baku-fossil-fuel-legacy-cop29\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">mid-19th century<\/a>, and fossil fuels now make up 90% of its exports. There could be no starker reminder of the core question that world leaders have come to Baku to decide: whether the planet will burn so that fossil fuel producers can continue to make money, or whether to take a different path.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">That the world\u2019s biggest economy, the US, is about to shift away from the focus on clean energy fostered by Joe Biden towards the \u201cdrill, baby, drill\u201d policies of Donald Trump will be a main topic of conversation for the tens of thousands of delegates at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/article\/2024\/may\/17\/cop29-at-a-crossroads-in-azerbaijan-with-focus-on-climate-finance\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Cop29 UN climate summit<\/a>. However, many will point out that no country has ever produced as much oil and gas as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/2024\/jul\/24\/fossil-fuel-liquified-natural-gas-louisiana\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">US does now<\/a>, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/2024\/jul\/24\/new-oil-gas-emission-data-us-uk\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">20% more oil and gas licences<\/a> issued during the Biden administration than during Trump\u2019s first term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Climate leaders reacted with defiance to the US election outcome. \u201cThe result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action but it cannot and will not halt the changes under way to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris agreement,\u201d declared Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief who is a co-founder of the Global Optimism thinktank.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Trump will not be at Cop29, a fortnight-long meeting that is the latest in a near annual series <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2022\/jun\/11\/cop-climate-change-conference-30-years-highlights-lowlights\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">stretching back to 1992<\/a> when the UN framework convention on climate change \u2013 the parent treaty to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2020\/dec\/08\/the-paris-agreement-five-years-on-is-it-strong-enough-to-avert-climate-catastrophe\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">2015 Paris climate agreement<\/a> \u2013 was signed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Those talks may appear to have achieved little, as greenhouse gas emissions are still rising and the losses from extreme weather \u2013 record hurricanes in the Atlantic, dramatic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/nov\/04\/spain-floods-military-unit-searches-car-parks-and-malls-amid-fears-death-toll-will-rise\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">floods last week in Spain<\/a>, drought in Africa that has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/apr\/27\/human-driven-climate-crisis-fuelling-horn-of-africa-drought-study\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">threatened millions with famine<\/a> \u2013 are becoming daily more apparent. Last year was the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2024\/jan\/12\/2023-hottest-year-record-us-scientists#:~:text=\" off=\"\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">hottest on record<\/a> and this year is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2024\/nov\/07\/this-year-virtually-certain-to-be-hottest-on-record-finds-eu-space-programme\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">likely to be hotter still<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"1a4d2602-848a-41c9-82dd-16ae80a51325\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">People wade through flood water in Bataban\u00f3, Cuba, after Hurricane Helene in September.<\/span> Photograph: Ram\u00f3n Espinosa\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Just 15 years ago, however, matters looked much worse. Renewable energy was then expensive and scarcely used, and the world was headed for 6C of global heating above preindustrial temperatures, a level that would barely support human life. Today, after years of talks \u2013 during which fossil fuel interests have repeatedly spread disinformation, blocked agreement, captured politicians and choked investment in renewables \u2013 we are heading for \u201conly\u201d 3C.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Global heating on that scale would still be devastating, scientists have made clear. So countries meeting at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/cop29\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Cop29<\/a> from Monday will reaffirm their commitments to limiting temperature rises to 1.5C, which will require reaching net zero emissions in the next two decades. Scientists say there is still a chance of avoiding the worst ravages of climate breakdown if the world acts now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">\u201cThe reality remains that unless the world collectively steps up its efforts, the impacts of climate change will become increasingly severe and frequent and will be felt by an increasing number of people in all countries, including in the US,\u201d said Kaveh Guilanpour, a vice-president for international strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a US thinktank. \u201cThe reality is that there is no prosperous or safe high-carbon future for anyone.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The prospects of a strong outcome from the Baku summit may appear dim, with the far right and anti-net zero voices on the rise in the US, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/europe-news\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Europe<\/a> and elsewhere. But there is hope that Cop29 will address at least one of the major issues preventing action: money. Shifting to clean energy makes economic as well as scientific sense, but the incumbency of fossil fuels is so strong that massive investment will be needed to shift the world on to that lower-carbon, lower-waste, more productive and healthier path.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">How much? About $3.5tn a year between now and 2050 to transform energy systems, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy-transitions.org\/bitesize\/three-key-policies-can-scale-1-trillion-investment-for-the-energy-transition\/#:~:text=The%20ETC's%202023%20Financing%20the,required%20for%20the%20energy%20transition.\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Energy Transitions Commission thinktank<\/a>. The UN, through its climate champions network, estimates $125tn in total by 2050, or about $5tn a year, for the whole global economy. A McKinsey report two years ago put the total at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/capabilities\/sustainability\/our-insights\/the-net-zero-transition-what-it-would-cost-what-it-could-bring\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">$9tn a year<\/a>, but that analysis has been <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/oneearth\/no-mckinsey-it-will-not-cost-9-trillion-per-year-to-solve-climate-change-3d0e20af52a\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">debunked<\/a> for using too-high cost estimates and ignoring existing investments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Where to get that money from? Most of it is already there. Trillions of dollars sounds like a lot but the world already spends $3tn a year on energy, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-investment-2024\/overview-and-key-findings\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">International Energy Agency<\/a>, and more than that on other industries in the fossil fuel-based economy. If investment was geared away from high-carbon infrastructure and towards cleaner alternatives, the sums could easily be met.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">For developed countries, all that is needed to achieve the switch is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2021\/feb\/24\/be-muscular-and-drive-green-recovery-cameron-tells-johnson\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">strong governance<\/a> that directs investment away from dirty infrastructure and into low-carbon technologies. That is tricky enough \u2013 witness the election of Trump on a clear anti-net zero ticket. But for the developing world the problem looks much harder. Poor countries already face high barriers to gaining the investment they need to lift people out of poverty, develop industries and fund basic services.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"5e9c22cb-26f9-4313-b765-9b6d4320a8c8\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">A solar power plant in the Gabu region of Guinea-Bissau in 2017.<\/span> Photograph: Le Pictorium\/Alamy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">For instance, Africa has the most abundant resources of solar power and wind energy. But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/data-tools\/renewables-data-explorer\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">data<\/a> from the International Energy Agency last year showed there were more solar panels in Belgium than in the whole of the African continent. Setting up solar and wind farms in Africa is far more costly than in rich countries, despite the lower physical and labour costs, because investors charge far more to lend capital and demand higher repayments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">At the same time, the impacts of climate breakdown are wreaking havoc on poor economies, frequently wiping out any development gains. Tinaye Mabara, a Botswana-based activist from Zimbabwe, said people were suffering the consequences. \u201cSouthern Africa, where I\u2019m from, is in the bottom tier of African regions that receive climate finance, so I want to see drastic climate finance reforms taken at this Cop to ensure that local adaptation efforts actually receive the necessary funding, because they are the ones on the ground doing the work.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Daniel Lund, a senior adviser to the Fijian government, said developing countries urgently needed help, with a greater quantity of climate finance and also through better systems to make it easier to access. \u201cAddressing the complex impacts of climate change through existing fragmented and volatile climate financing arrangements can feel like fighting a raging fire with dozens of tiny fire extinguishers,\u201d he said. \u201cNone of the tools currently available are sufficient for the scale of the problem.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">That is why <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/global-development\/2024\/sep\/24\/rich-countries-could-raise-5tn-of-climate-finance-a-year-study-says\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">money will be the core focus<\/a> of Cop29. Under the Paris agreement, countries must agree a \u201cnew collective quantified goal\u201d (NCQG) for climate finance, to flow from the rich to the poor, to help developing countries cut their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">This is something that has never been tried before in three decades of talks. Until now, the only climate finance target has been a promise made in 2009, at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8fb70c48-ed9b-11de-ba12-00144feab49a\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Cop15 in Copenhagen<\/a>, for $100bn a year to flow to the developing world by 2020. That target was only achieved two years late \u2013 a delay that damaged the faith of developing countries, according to Alok Sharma, the president of Cop26 in Glasgow and now a member of the UK\u2019s House of Lords. \u201cNot reaching the previous $100bn goal on time sapped the confidence and trust of developing nations, and that\u2019s why any future finance goal has to meet the deliverability test,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">No Cop has ever discussed a finance goal before, let alone any tested of its rationale. The $100bn figure was \u201cplucked out of the air\u201d, said Rachel Kyte, the UK\u2019s new climate envoy, speaking before her appointment to the role. The offer was made \u2013 largely at the instigation of the then US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton \u2013 based on political calculations of what developed country governments thought their electorates would stand for.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"7e6b24c2-acfe-4bd1-bb43-7c7cb14f03b5\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Vehicles drive past Cop29 posters in Baku.<\/span> Photograph: Aziz Karimov\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">At Cop29, more rigorous systems are in place. Two years ago the economists Nicholas Stern and Vera Songwe led an in-depth analysis of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2022\/nov\/08\/developing-countries-climate-crisis-funding-2030-report-nicholas-stern\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">climate finance needs<\/a>. They <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/a-climate-finance-framework-decisive-action-to-deliver-on-the-paris-agreement-summary\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">came up with a number<\/a>: $2.4tn a year was needed for developing countries, excluding China, to cut their greenhouse gas emissions and protect themselves against climate breakdown.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Of that sum, about half could come from countries\u2019 existing budgets and domestic private investment sources, the economists estimated. That would leave roughly $1tn to come from the developed world, a large chunk of which Lord Stern believes could come from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2024\/apr\/17\/billions-more-overseas-aid-climate-world-bank-imf-spring-summit\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">reforming the World Bank<\/a> and its fellow institutions, to enable them to lend more, and on easier terms, to climate-related efforts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Most analysts and developed country governments agree on these estimates. Most developing countries broadly accept them, a stance reflected in the proposals for the NCQG that they have submitted to the UN this year. For example, India submitted a demand for $1tn a year, and the Alliance of Small Island States is targeting a similar number, while the Africa group wants $1.3tn.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">But these figures are a statement of need. Few believe all of this money could come from the exchequers of developed countries without risking a backlash. Joe Thwaites, of the NRDC thinktank in the US, said: \u201cThere is a keen awareness of the fragility of the political consensus on this.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.NewsletterSignupBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"#EmailSignup-skip-link-27\" class=\"dcr-jzxpee\">skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n<aside aria-label=\"newsletter promotion\" class=\"dcr-av5vqf\">\n<p class=\"dcr-1xjndtj\">The planet&#8217;s most important stories. Get all the week&#8217;s environment news &#8211; the good, the bad and the essential<\/p>\n<p><gu-island name=\"SecureSignup\" priority=\"feature\" deferuntil=\"visible\" props=\"{&quot;newsletterId&quot;:&quot;green-light&quot;,&quot;successDescription&quot;:&quot;The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential&quot;}\"\/><span class=\"dcr-1eusqlu\"><strong>Privacy Notice: <\/strong>Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/help\/privacy-policy\" rel=\"noreferrer\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\">Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/privacy\" rel=\"noreferrer\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/terms\" rel=\"noreferrer\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\">Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/span><\/aside>\n<p id=\"EmailSignup-skip-link-27\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"after newsletter promotion\" role=\"note\" class=\"dcr-jzxpee\">after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">For the Azerbaijan presidency, it was clear from early in the talks that reconciling these two approaches \u2013 one based on need, the other on what developed countries are prepared to stump up \u2013 means including at least two key numbers in the NCQG. What has emerged from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/2024\/jun\/21\/bonn-climate-conference-key-takeaways\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">pre-Cop talks<\/a> in recent months is a \u201clayered approach\u201d. These layers have led some participants to call it an onion, others a camembert (because the sources of cash will be divided up into wedges), while a few prefer comparisons to a pie or a sandwich.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Culinary metaphors aside, the core concept is fairly simple: the NCQG will include the needs expressed by developing countries; an agreed goal for finance coming from existing developed countries plus an expanded contributor base; and ideas for how to fill the gap between the two.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">No developed countries are yet prepared to be specific about how much the \u201cquantum\u201d of contributions should be, and the goal will be a collective one, so individual countries will not need to submit their own targets. The Guardian understands that overall sums in the region of $400bn to $600bn by 2035 are being discussed. Much if not most of that funding is likely to come not directly from developed world taxpayers but through multilateral development banks such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which will require sweeping reform before they are capable of meeting the challenge.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">In order to agree to such sums, rich countries are also demanding a redrawing of donor terms to expand the list of contributors. The global economy has changed drastically since 1992 when the UNFCCC was signed, which divided the world starkly into developed countries with obligations to cut emissions and provide finance, and developing countries that carried no such obligations. China is now the biggest economy and biggest emitter but has no obligation to offer climate finance, and other middle-income countries such as South Korea and Singapore are also booming. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are classed as developing, despite their vast oil wealth.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"dd54fc89-b387-41c1-9bf0-12c3eaebc900\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">A coal-fired power plant looms over Dingzhou, northern China.<\/span> Photograph: Ng Han Guan\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">China will not agree to have its developing country status changed and insists that it already provides de facto climate finance in the form of loans to poorer countries. There may be a compromise available in counting some of these forms of finance, on a voluntary basis, towards an expanded donor base. The UAE and Azerbaijan have also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/article\/2024\/jul\/20\/cop29-host-azerbaijan-seeks-1bn-from-fossil-fuel-producers-for-climate-fund\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">made gestures<\/a>, pledging relatively small quantities. Saudi Arabia, however, is firmly set against being tapped as a donor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">To bridge the gap of hundreds of billions of dollars a year, countries are pinning their hopes on what are being termed \u201cinnovative sources of finance\u201d. These include potential <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/sep\/25\/petrostate-windfall-tax-oil-gas-climate-crisis-gordon-brown\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">taxes on high-carbon activities<\/a>, such as oil and gas extraction; wealth taxes, such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/article\/2024\/jul\/28\/brazil-radical-plan-tax-global-super-rich-tackle-climate-crisis\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">billionaire tax proposed by Brazil<\/a>; levies on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2022\/oct\/17\/rich-countries-must-urgently-help-poor-nations-hit-by-climate-crisis-says-v20\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">frequent flyers<\/a> and on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/mar\/22\/pressure-grows-on-shipping-industry-to-accept-carbon-levy\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">global shipping<\/a>; proceeds from the sales of carbon credits; and redirecting harmful subsidies to fossil fuels and agriculture towards more sustainable options.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The US under Biden was lukewarm on some of these ideas \u2013 the Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, said a firm no to any wealth tax, for instance \u2013 but was at least a participant. Under Trump, the US may try to stymie any prospect of global levies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Yet the impact of a Trump government on the NCQG is likely to be smaller than feared. The US provided just $1.5bn in climate finance in 2021, $5.8bn in 2022 and $9.5bn in 2023. These sums are paltry compared with the US\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2022\/dec\/23\/us-fails-to-give-money-promised-for-developing-countries-to-ease-climate-impacts\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">historical responsibilities<\/a> as a carbon emitter, according to activists. The EU is a bigger provider of climate finance than the US.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Alden Meyer, of the climate change thinktank E3G, said: \u201cThe US contribution has not been what it should have been, under any government. There will be some impact but not that much.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Answering the money question would be a huge boost to climate action, and to climate justice for the world\u2019s poorest and most vulnerable people. But it will not be enough to make Cop29 a success. Current plans from national governments to cut greenhouse gas emissions \u2013 called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) \u2013 are inadequate and urgently need to be strengthened.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Under the Paris agreement, the next round of NDCs are due in February, before the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2024\/oct\/16\/lula-and-petro-have-chance-of-lifetime-to-save-amazon-can-they-unite-idealism-realpolitik-to-pull-it-off-cop16-aoe\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Cop30 conference<\/a> to be held in Brazil next November. Some countries will file theirs early \u2013 the UK has promised to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/2024\/aug\/29\/uk-emissions-targets-cop29-climate-summit-labour\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">announce its plans at Cop29<\/a> \u2013 and Brazil wants to use the summit in Baku to ensure countries come up with NDCs that are strong, detailed and contain targets commensurate to the task of reaching net zero by mid-century.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Harjeet Singh, the global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said: \u201cFor communities facing the harshest impacts of climate change, the stakes have never been higher. Developing countries should amplify diplomatic and economic pressure, underscoring global interdependence and holding wealthier nations accountable for their historical emissions and responsibilities.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"3ebf6703-b361-4e1c-b173-fa971e29089f\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Donald Trump on a visit to the Double Eagle Energy oil rig in Midland, Texas, in July.<\/span> Photograph: Evan Vucci\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Owing to Trump\u2019s victory, these efforts may seem futile. Simon Lewis, a professor of global change science at University College London, spoke for many scientists in saying: \u201cWe can say goodbye to the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels. Increasingly deadly climate impacts will escalate. It\u2019s as simple as that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Activists and governments are not ready to give up yet. Abandoning the 1.5C target would give too much ground to those \u2013 including Saudi Arabia and its allies \u2013 who already argue for a retreat to the much easier 2C limit that was also set down in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2015\/dec\/13\/paris-climate-deal-cop-diplomacy-developing-united-nations\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">2015 Paris agreement<\/a>. Yet scientists have warned that a rise of 2C would be disastrous, for small islands in particular, bringing more droughts and more floods, and would risk triggering calamitous tipping points \u2013 such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2024\/oct\/23\/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation<\/a> that brings warm weather to northern Europe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Rather than do that, Brazil \u2013 backed by developed countries including the UK, the EU, and developing countries including members of the Alliance of Small Island States \u2013 will keep the focus on 1.5C and push all countries \u2013 even the US \u2013 to come up with NDCs that could achieve it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Oscar Soria, the director of the Common Initiative thinktank, said: \u201cThe difference between 1.5C and 2C could mean the difference between manageable and unmanageable conditions for many vulnerable populations. While the challenge is daunting, abandoning the 1.5C target would be a collective suicide. We cannot and should not do that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">One final fight at Baku will be over the future of the world\u2019s energy systems. At the previous climate summit, Cop28 in Dubai last year, countries made a historic commitment to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/dec\/15\/fossil-fuels-how-a-huge-gamble-sealed-cop28-deal\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">\u201ctransition away\u201d<\/a> from fossil fuels \u2013 incredibly, thanks to the strength of the fossil fuel lobby, the first time in 30 years of talks this resolution has been made. According to high-level participants in the talks, already in pre-Cop meetings some oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, have tried to unpick it. They will try harder now, emboldened by the prospect of at least four years of US climate backsliding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, who this summer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/article\/2024\/jul\/03\/jamaica-braces-for-arrival-of-hurricane-beryl\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">spoke movingly<\/a> of the impacts of climate breakdown from the ruins of his grandmother\u2019s house in Carriacou, destroyed by Hurricane Beryl, promised to protect the progress that had been made. \u201cAmbitious outcomes in Baku remain vital, because unless all countries can cut emissions and build more resilience into global supply chains, no economy \u2013 including the G20 \u2013 will survive unchecked global heating, and no household will be spared its severe inflationary impacts.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8162386273903324\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7859258044\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2024\/nov\/08\/cop29-baku-climate-talks-odour-of-oil-return-of-trump-finance\">READ SOURCE<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>More than 100 heads of state and government are expected to land in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, over the next few days and the first thing they are likely to notice is the smell of oil. The odour hangs heavy in the air, evidence of the abundance of fossil fuels in this small country [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1345361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oct_exclude_from_cache":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1345360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Odour of oil and return of Trump hang heavy over Cop29 in Baku - Business Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/odour-of-oil-and-return-of-trump-hang-heavy-over-cop29-in-baku\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Odour of oil and return of Trump hang heavy over Cop29 in Baku - Business Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"More than 100 heads of state and government are expected to land in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, over the next few days and the first thing they are likely to notice is the smell of oil. 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