l{"id":1214054,"date":"2023-04-12T06:35:05","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T05:35:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/el-nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/"},"modified":"2023-04-12T06:35:05","modified_gmt":"2023-04-12T05:35:05","slug":"el-nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/el-nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o unlikely to dampen tractor sales"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- newscabal uk text -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:inline-block;width:728px;height:90px\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8162386273903324\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3688094655\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-brcount=\"27\">Forecasts on emergence of the drought-causing El Ni\u00f1o weather phenomenon have cast a shadow over the agriculture sector performance, but the tractor industry doesn\u2019t expect that to weigh on sales.<\/p>\n<p>Historical trend shows no direct or significant correlation between below normal rainfall and tractor industry volume, said industry executives.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, El Ni\u00f1o has had a low correlation with tractor sales growth. The average industry growth has been 8% even in El Ni\u00f1o years,\u201d <a data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/rajesh-jejurikar\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rajesh Jejurikar<\/a>, executive director \u2013 farm and automotive sectors at <a data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/mahindra-mahindra-ltd\/stocks\/companyid-11898.cms\" rel=\"noopener\">Mahindra<\/a> &amp; Mahindra, told ET. Concurred AS <a data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/mittal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mittal<\/a>, vice chairman, International <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/punjab-tractors-ltd-(merged)\/stocks\/companyid-13234.cms\" data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tractors Ltd<\/a>. \u201cTractor sales get impacted only if the monsoon is below normal consecutively for three years or so. On last year\u2019s high base and all the positive indicators, we expect tractor sales to advance 5-7% in the current year,\u201d said Mittal.<\/p>\n<p>Tractor sales rose to an all-time high of 945,000 units in the year ended March 31, up 12% from previous year.<\/p>\n<p>On Monday, private weather forecaster Skymet predicted \u201cbelow-normal\u201d rains during the southwest monsoon and a 60% of chance for drought, citing El Ni\u00f1o conditions. But on Tuesday, India\u2019s official forecaster, the <a data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/india-meteorological-department\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">India Meteorological Department<\/a> (<a data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/imd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IMD<\/a>), said the monsoon would be \u201cnormal\u201d and also clarified that all El Ni\u00f1o years were not bad monsoon years.<\/p>\n<p>While IMD\u2019s forecast would help ease the concerns, a steady increase in irrigated areas, healthy water levels in reservoirs and high soil moisture are likely to help reduce the impact if the rains are indeed below normal. Also, expectations of superior cash flow in farmer\u2019s hands due to higher minimum support prices (<a data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/msp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MSP<\/a>) ahead of the election year will bode well for tractor sales, said tractor makers.<\/p>\n<p>More than anything else, the crop prices have had a strong correlation with tractor sales, said Mittal.The MSP of wheat has increased to Rs 1,940 per quintal in 2022 from Rs 1,470 in 2017, while that of rice has risen to Rs2,015 from Rs1,625. This has improved the cash flows of farmers significantly. Historical data show the MSP hike in the pre-election year could be in double digits. This could further increase the disposable income for farmers.<\/p>\n<p>While Jejurikar steered clear of giving any projection on tractor industry volume for 2023-24, he pointed out that strong agriculture credit growth, the upcoming elections, government\u2019s capex push apart from good reservoir levels and healthy farm income would bode well for the industry.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is not the dominant factor to decide the course of tractor sales even as the rest of the factors are,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o describes unusual warming of the surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which often results in deficit monsoon rains in India. According to the US government\u2019s <a data-ga-onclick=\"Inarticle articleshow link click#Industry#href\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, the average surface temperature has reached 21 degrees centigrade in April 2023 \u2014 the highest since data started capturing through satellites. It estimates a 57% chance for the emergence of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>In the past 25 years, there have been five instances of El Ni\u00f1o, out of which four years have seen below-normal rains. However, in those four years, domestic tractor sales dropped in only two: 2002 and 2015. Tractor industry volume expanded in the other two years \u2014 2004 and 2009 \u2014 backed by MSP hikes, growing alternative sources of rural income and increased government support in pre-election periods.<\/p>\n<p>Taking cue from historical trends, analysts expect low-single digit volume growth for tractors in fiscal 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Kotak Institutional Equities in note on Mahindra said its analysis of previous El Ni\u00f1o occurrences in India suggested mixed impact on tractor sales, despite deficient monsoon in most cases. \u201cWe expect M&amp;M\u2019s tractor volumes to grow by 5% y-o-y in FY2024E given adequate reservoir levels and expectation of increase in government support before elections,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8162386273903324\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7859258044\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/auto\/lcv-hcv\/el-nio-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/articleshow\/99425342.cms\">READ SOURCE<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecasts on emergence of the drought-causing El Ni\u00f1o weather phenomenon have cast a shadow over the agriculture sector performance, but the tractor industry doesn\u2019t expect that to weigh on sales. Historical trend shows no direct or significant correlation between below normal rainfall and tractor industry volume, said industry executives. \u201cHistorically, El Ni\u00f1o has had a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1214055,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oct_exclude_from_cache":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1214054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>El Ni\u00f1o unlikely to dampen tractor sales - Business Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/auto\/lcv-hcv\/el-nio-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/articleshow\/99425342.cms\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o unlikely to dampen tractor sales - Business Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Forecasts on emergence of the drought-causing El Ni\u00f1o weather phenomenon have cast a shadow over the agriculture sector performance, but the tractor industry doesn\u2019t expect that to weigh on sales. Historical trend shows no direct or significant correlation between below normal rainfall and tractor industry volume, said industry executives. \u201cHistorically, El Ni\u00f1o has had a [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/auto\/lcv-hcv\/el-nio-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/articleshow\/99425342.cms\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Business Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-12T05:35:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/El-Nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1070\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"580\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"businesstelegraph\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"businesstelegraph\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/auto\/lcv-hcv\/el-nio-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/articleshow\/99425342.cms#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/el-nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"businesstelegraph\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/#\/schema\/person\/0a3a6a0f58402f1f2af94e02d0987b78\"},\"headline\":\"El Ni\u00f1o unlikely to dampen tractor sales\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-12T05:35:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-12T05:35:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/el-nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/\"},\"wordCount\":639,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/auto\/lcv-hcv\/el-nio-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/articleshow\/99425342.cms#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/El-Nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"industry\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.businesstelegraph.co.uk\/el-nino-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/auto\/lcv-hcv\/el-nio-unlikely-to-dampen-tractor-sales\/articleshow\/99425342.cms\",\"name\":\"El Ni\u00f1o unlikely to dampen tractor sales - 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