Military analyst Sean Bell answers this question from Glen Gilbert…
Throughout history, wars have involved numerous tactical battles – some offensive, some defensive – until one or both sides achieve their strategic objectives.
If Ukraine does indeed launch a much-anticipated spring offensive, this will be the latest in a series of tactical engagements in their attempt to clear all Russian soldiers from their territory.
Before addressing the question, it is worth looking at what “winning” means in the context of this war.
Most military analysts would conclude that there will be no winners in this conflict – the price paid in terms of lives lost and those communities devastated will leave an indelible mark for generations to come for both Russia and Ukraine.
Besides, Ukraine looks unlikely to be able to liberate all of its lands, and Russia will struggle to subjugate all of Ukraine, so neither side will achieve their strategic objectives.
Of note, despite the amazing courage and bravery of the Ukrainian defenders, they would have struggled to withstand the Russian onslaught without Western support – both financial and military. That support is not open-ended – despite what some might argue – and for those that believe this is an unwinnable war, continued supplies of weapons risks perpetuating the conflict, and continued loss of life.
Neither side is yet ready to compromise – so peace negotiations currently appear futile.
However, Russia’s military machine has suffered huge losses (in tanks, ammunition and personnel) and run out of steam – at least in the near-to-medium term – whereas Ukraine appears ready to capitalise and regain some or much of its lost territory.
As a result, the West has delivered over 98% of the military support pledged (including Western main battle tanks) to maximise the potential of Ukraine’s forthcoming offensive.
However, at the end of this year’s fighting, both sides are likely to have ground to a halt on the battlefield, which creates the opportunity for negotiation.
Longer term, Russia’s greater size and resources will always provide them with a strategic advantage, but that will not stop them reviewing the potential benefits and risks associated with drawing the conflict to a close.
And, I would not underestimate the potential for China and America to have influence on the outcome of that review.
