India never had a long-term plan, 25–50 or 100 years. If we look at the United States, it commissioned a report, ‘Technology and the American Economy,’ and released it more than half a century ago in February 1966, and today, the USA is the world leader in tech. In 1947, China was behind India in terms of GDP. In 1987, the nominal GDP of India and China was similar even in PPP terms. In the 1990s, China was only slightly ahead, and now three decades later, China is 5.46 times ahead (Statistics Times, 2021) – India’s GDP is $3.17 trillion, and China’s GDP is $17.73 trillion(Gupta R. P., Tough Choices & Hard Decisions: Rebuilding India the Next 25 Years, 2020). It’s worth looking at China’s investments in education and research and development (R&D), which is directly proportional to the economic growth it has witnessed. We are waking up late.
Earlier, being a lakhpati (having Rs hundred thousand) was considered ‘rich.’ Today, having a lakh rupee is not very significant. About 80 crore people whom we give free ration will be India’s future. They depend on India, but if we handle them well, India will depend on them. The key lies in how we handle these 80-crore people, which will decide the future of this country. These 80 crore will propel India to a sustained double-digit growth.
India @100 should be a land of abundance, opportunity, spirituality, and technology with happy citizens.
Next year we may face another financial crisis that has been building up. The foreign reserve can deplete faster than we can think. Exporters/Industry and the middle class will be hit. Worrying is that we are losing entrepreneurs who are moving out and creating wealth in foreign countries like Singapore, the USA, the U.K., and E.U. Earlier, people migrated because they did not have money or opportunities. Now people with money (HNIs) are leaving for greener pastures. So, India needs to be careful.
This calls for many systemic shifts and fundamental reforms to ensure exponential growth. Indians have the potential to transform India into a high-income country. We can be in the lower band of the high-income countries if we grow from the existing GNI per capita of $2000 to $23,000, and we could become a $37 trillion economy by 2047 if we grow at 10.50% per annum. However, if we want to be amongst the top rung of the high-income countries, we need to achieve a GNI per capita of $45,000, and we could become a $73 trillion economy by 2047 if we grow at 13.50% per annum. It is possible only if we plan carefully and apply forecasting and back-casting techniques.
We don’t need economic reforms but we need a new economic model. India should not repeat the mistakes of the west- of moving towards a market-driven model where the economy is the goal, whereas, in my view, the economy can never be a goal; it is an outcome! Hence, building a new India will take much more than just an economic plan. So, the economy will be an outcome of transformations needed in other areas. For that, we must embed culture & governance principles in every institution, or else the second law of thermodynamics will be at work – things move from order to disorder in a system.Viksit Bharat Abhiyan has been ideated as a mission-mode project and must become a ground-level movement. If every Indian gives time to this project, we could secure the future of our families—our nation. Let us not forget if India has to become Aatma Nirbhar, we have to become AatmaNirbhar ( be driven by our conscience ). That’s why I say Viksit Bharat Abhiyan is a call of conscience for a call to action.
At Viskit Bharat Abhiyan, we are building a granular plan, and implementation has to happen simultaneously.
If we look at the ten building blocks of Viksit Bharat, vision comes first, as without having a vision, we will be directionless. This needs to be based on our culture and heritage, involvement of citizens, a mindset change (psychology), governance framework, environment sustainability plan, and backed by policies, processes and systems, institutions, infrastructure, and the final block – the tenth block that is the result of the first nine blocks will be economic progress.
India will become a developed nation through our decisions and actions. Making India a developed nation by 2047 is our second freedom struggle, and we must unite and work hard to get freedom from being a lower-middle-income country to become a ‘Viksit Bharat.’
The writer is a leading public policy expert & former advisor to the Union Health Minister.
