Why ban CO2-emitting cars if the market's moving against them already?

And so pundits viewed it as a mere political maneuver last week when UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced he will be delaying the end date for the sales of fossil-fuel powered cars from 2030 to 2035. The prime minister argued it should be market demand — not government bans — deciding the pace of EV uptake.

“I expect that by 2030, the vast majority of cars sold will be electric. Why? Because the costs are reducing; the range is improving; the charging infrastructure is growing,” he said when announcing the delay last week. “But I also think that, at least for now, it should be you the consumer that makes that choice, not government forcing you to do it.”

While some reading of government policy shows the 2030 date was never actually a formal deadline, Sunak’s words have raised new fears that the UK will miss its climate goals. And even the prime minister himself seems to know it’s not all invisible forces driving EV sales.

“If Sunak doesn’t want to tell people what they can or cannot buy, why is he not scrapping the ban altogether?” said Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electrified transport at BloombergNEF.

That’s because bans are needed.

Bloomberg

The UK is a global leader in electric-car sales, according to BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook. If you let market forces do the job, EV’s share of new UK sales will eventually get to 97% by 2050. That’s still almost 30 years away, meaning the UK will certainly miss its climate goals relying on the market alone.

Letting the market on its own won’t be fast enough, contrary to what Sunak says. Reaching net-zero goals requires EVs to be 100% of new sales by at least by 2035. That’s because the typical life of a car is about 15 years. So converting the entire fleet to zero emissions will require selling only EVs between 2035 and 2050, the net-zero deadline, and powering those cars with zero-carbon electricity.

In short, bans will be needed to meet climate goals. And it’s not just consumers looking for some direction — car manufacturers are relying on the certainty of the UK’s net zero strategy as well.

Automakers have to make investments worth billions of dollars to deliver on the policy and they need to plan for those years in advance.

“Those investment cycles for automakers are quite long,” says Colin McKerracher, BNEF’s head of advanced transport. “Even if factories can be converted to making EVs, there are things like supply chain and EV platform design that require an extended period of time.”

It’s one reason why Nissan is sticking to only selling EVs in the UK from 2030 onward.