For a long time, people would ask me: “Why do you go on all the time about Brexit?” My answer would take various forms, but essentially it boiled down to: “Because it is the biggest self-inflicted British economic crisis of my career.” Brexit affects businesses and what economists call “consumers” every day – almost always adversely.
More recently, the consistent message from readers I encounter, when Brexit comes up in the conversation, has been “please don’t stop”. Indeed, it is time to “get Brexit undone”.
I have covered many an economic crisis over the years, including the oil crises of the 1970s and the banking crisis of 2007-09. These affected most economies. The consequences of the 2016 referendum and our subsequent departure from the European Union were not the outcome of outside forces, but entirely self-inflicted.
As the disaster of Brexit becomes more evident, it also becomes obvious that, in what was largely a protest vote, many people did not know what they were letting themselves in for. Well, they certainly know now. And what people are slowly beginning to appreciate is that there are a lot more horrors to come. Last week, following the news that assorted trade deals with countries in distant parts of the world hardly amounted to a row of beans, came the knockout blow to the entire lying Johnson-inspired rationale: namely that the loss of British exporters’ privileged access to our principal and nearest trading partner, the EU, would be effortlessly replaced by a major trade deal with the US.
The news was that President Joe Biden had vetoed any idea of such a deal. This is very significant and, frankly, given the numerous horrors of the daily diet of other international news, probably did not receive enough media coverage. The wonders of the non-EU trading agreements that do not exist cannot replace the best of both worlds we enjoyed as members of the EU in general, and the single market – in whose creation we played a vital part – in particular.
I find in my travels that even (almost) ashamed Brexiters are now pining for the single market, something of which Labour leader Keir Starmer, who frequently rules out rejoining, should take note. The bureaucratic proliferation of customs form filling is driving business people and traders mad. Many are being forced to throw in the towel. And they are all too aware that, from January onwards, their attempts to export to the EU are destined to become even more complicated. The hazards obviously hinder importers too.
And not just business. The barriers to the freedom of movement within the EU also apply to the rest of us. It was reported last week that UK passport holders will face huge delays when entering the EU with the introduction of post-Brexit fingerprint checks and face scans next year. Even before this, we already know that there have been long queues at ports as passports have to be checked. Yes, this is typical of the blatant lies told by the Brexiters about regaining control. Regaining control? You must be joking. Things have rapidly got out of control, in a country where it is a commonplace complaint that things are not working too well anyway.
Now, it seems a reasonable assumption not so much that Labour will win the next general election as that this dreadful rabble of a once proud soi-disant Conservative party will lose it.
There is a celebrated remark of Samuel Johnson’s that “patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel”. In the case of what is left of the Tory party one might adapt this to “the promise of tax cuts is a last refuge of a Conservative scoundrel”.
How they can have the cheek to promise tax concessions when the public services are in such a state and further cuts in essential public spending are built into their plans is appalling; unfortunately, in the circumstances, it is all too easy to contemplate.
This government seems impervious to the manifest spread of poverty in the country, recently epitomised by Suella Braverman’s claim that rough sleeping was a “lifestyle choice”. It reminds me of Mr Bumble, the beadle, in Oliver Twist: “The great principle of out-of-door relief is, to give the paupers exactly what they don’t want; and then they get tired of coming.”
There are so many distressing social ills for a future Labour government to address. This is one important reason why it is simply not good enough for Starmer resignedly to accept Brexit as having been “done”.
As I have reported before, Brexit will knock anything from 4% to 6% off GDP – the nation’s productive potential. This has huge ramifications for the revenue Labour will need to achieve its ambition to rescue the economy. Labour’s aim and slogan should be, loud and clear: “Get Brexit undone!”
