Turek said that current figures indicate a strong labor market despite other recent economic developments: “It’s remarkably resilient when you compare that to other things happening throughout the economy.”
The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to address ongoing inflation, Turek said. However, there’s concern among economists that deliberately slowing the economy by making loans more expensive could cause a halt in business expansion and consumer expansion that would lead to a recession.
Generally, the labor market is a lagging indicator, which means it’s usually one of the last things to change before an economic slowdown or recession, Turek said. The state’s labor market may be seeing those impacts now, although he said it’s still early to know.
While a 6,100 month-to-month job increase is solid, it’s well below the increases seen in recent months. In February, the increase over January was 15,400. And last July the state saw an increase of nearly 38,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, job openings in Washington have been on a decline. In February, job openings declined by 22%, according to Employment Security.
In addition, industry sectors have cut jobs to correct over-expansion. For example, the technology industry in Seattle expanded greatly during the pandemic. However, growth has slowed, which has prompted thousands of layoffs at area companies.
However, the Seattle unemployment rate remained below the state average, at 3% in April.
“There will be some openings in tech and other places [in Seattle]. It’s just that it’s not as many as they used to be, and things have started to soften,” Turek said.
