As per the reports of Yahoo news, Silver’s model, which tracks electoral predictions, shows that Trump’s probability of securing the Electoral College rose to 58.2%, compared to 52.4% the week before. Meanwhile, Harris’ chances dropped to 41.6%, down from 47.3%. Silver noted that the contest remains a toss-up, but Trump’s edge has grown.
Impact of state polling on Harris
Silver pointed to Harris’ weaker polling numbers in certain states as a critical factor. While national polls and several swing states still show decent support for Harris, her performance in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan has been concerning. Silver previously warned that Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, could play a decisive role, and Harris seems to be slipping slightly there.
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Michigan, another crucial state with 15 electoral votes, is also presenting challenges. Silver’s model highlighted a decline in Harris’ lead in Michigan, shrinking from +3.1% before the Democratic National Convention (DNC) to +1.9% afterward. This erosion in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan is hurting her overall electoral position.
Lack of DNC bounce and voter enthusiasm
Silver remarked that Harris did not experience as strong a bounce from the DNC as many had expected. This underwhelming performance has contributed to her weaker polling in recent weeks. In particular, he pointed out that most recent state polls have shown numbers below her campaign’s average.Also Read : The Mandalorian & Grogu Movie: Everything we know so far
Addressing the issue of voter enthusiasm, Silver mentioned that bypassing Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate could be affecting Harris’ momentum. Although there was initial enthusiasm for Harris after President Biden dropped out, Silver suggested that her campaign has struggled to maintain that energy.
FAQs
How has Trump’s electoral chances changed according to Nate Silver?
Silver’s model shows Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2%, marking his strongest position in recent months, while Harris’ chances have dropped.
Did Kamala Harris benefit from the Democratic National Convention (DNC)?
Harris did not experience a significant polling bounce after the DNC, contrary to expectations. Her recent state polling results have fallen below her campaign’s averages, contributing to weaker momentum.
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