Tory party faith in ‘narrow path’ to victory dwindles

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Good morning. Rishi Sunak is facing another “Bruising Revolt”™, this time over the Rwanda asylum bill, which aims to speed up removals of asylum seekers to Rwanda after the Supreme Court ruled the policy was unlawful. Some thoughts below about what does and doesn’t matter about the series of votes starting today.

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com

Tightening ship

A regular feature of Conservative away days is the visit from the ghost of Conservative oppositions past: a grandee from the party’s history who warns that being out of government is no fun at all.

Remember that most sitting Conservative MPs have no experience of life in opposition. Those big wave years of 2010 (90 gains, largely at Labour’s expense), 2015 (37 gains, largely at the Liberal Democrat’s expense) and 2019 (Labour again), plus retirements in safe seats, have meant that most Conservative MPs have never been parliamentarians in opposition.

The point of this section of the away day is to act as a cautionary tale. It serves as a reminder to MPs that, yes, getting your moment in the sun now is a lot of fun, but you’ll pay for it in opposition.

Then there is a presentation by Isaac Levido, the party’s campaign chief, about the Conservatives’ “narrow path” to victory at the next election. One condition of the party’s route back along that path is that Tory MPs refrain from doing things that make the party look fractious and tired. One MP recently joked to me that the away days have the feel of a religious ceremony. Damnation is coming, but don’t worry: “all who believe in Him aka Isaac Levido will be saved.” (Do read our excellent profile of Levido if you haven’t already.)

There is no prospect that the government will be defeated over the Rwanda bill, which returns to the Commons today. The combination of the government payroll rote and Labour opposition will see off rebel amendments to toughen the bill. While some of Sunak’s more implacable opponents are making noises about voting down the bill as a whole, it is one thing to say that, and quite another to do it, let alone do it in sufficient numbers to defeat the government.

But what really matters about it is that it is yet another sign that many Conservative MPs do not believe in the “narrow path” — and they will continue to cause Sunak trouble as a result.

Migration, for decades hailed as a source of diversity and economic success, is emerging as a major challenge for western liberal democracies. In a lunchtime webinar on January 24, journalists Martin Wolf and Alec Russell join guests to debate the way forward. FT subscribers can sign up for free here.

Now try this

I re-read Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin over the holidays. It’s a brilliant but trashy story of love, romance and gaming. Perfect at the end of a long year and I suspect that I will end up reading it again when the election campaign starts in earnest. Also a fan of the book: Rishi Sunak. I wrote about Sunak and gaming in my column in today’s paper.