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There is something strange in the population projections published by the ONS on Thursday.
The underlying tables show an odd discontinuity between historical and projected fertility data. For example, figures released in November showed that the number of births in England and Wales dropped to just over 620,000 in 2022, from about 730,000 ten years earlier.
But in the ONS forecast published on Tuesday, births in England and Wales are forecast to rise to more than 650,000 next year.
“Something very odd about today’s ONS population projections . . . they assume not only that fertility doesn’t continue its recent fall, but that it recovers sharply and stabilises,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor at King’s College, London in a post Tuesday. “Take with a very large pinch of salt,” he warned.
Similarly, the natural change in population in England and Wales, which is the number of deaths minus births, fell from a peak of 239,000 in 2011 to only 46,000 in 2022. The ONS forecast that this will rise again above 80,000 this year.
Reading the small print, it appears that the ONS has incorporated the latest births and deaths data, but has not updated its demographic assumptions on fertility and mortality for its forecast.
The ONS specified in its release that “the assumptions of future fertility and mortality are reused from our 2020-based NPPs . . . All assumptions will be updated in the next release, provisionally announced for publication in late 2024.”
ONS’s Rich Pereira also gave some extra context in a post Tuesday:
The most recent fertility figures forecast that the long-term assumption for completed family size for the UK will be 1.59 children per woman by mid-2045. This is lower than the principal assumption for the 2018-based projections of 1.78 children per woman, and lower than the ONS’s previous long-term forecasts:
So it seems reasonable to think the next ONS fertility assumptions will be lower, possibly resulting in lower numbers of births, with implications for the overall population projections.
But let’s not spoil the fun today. For now we can celebrate a UK population projected to reach 70 million by mid-2026. Until the projections get revised, that is.
