The Biden administration is projecting that under its new proposed rule, most new car sales could be electric by the end of the decade.
Experts say a lot needs to be done both technically and in terms of consumer mindset to make this a reality — but many also say it’s possible.
“It’s certainly possible to get there. It’s not going to be easy though,” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal e-mobility analyst at Guidehouse Insights.
In 2021, President Biden set a goal of making half of new vehicle sales electric by 2030, but this past week, the Biden administration proposed a new climate regulation for passenger cars that appears to be even more ambitious.
The rule would not mandate a certain number of EV sales, but instead limit how much planet-warming emissions can come from an automaker’s fleet. Under the proposal, the EPA projects that for model year 2030, 60 percent of new cars sold will be electric and 67 percent will be electric in model year 2032.
Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, said that number is a “big jump” from the current share of sales that are electric — which her organization found was about 7 percent for the first quarter of this year.
“Making this successful is all about the consumer and changing consumer behavior,” she said.
“When we ask consumers what are the obstacles to buying EVs, cost is one and then range and the charging infrastructure” is another, Krebs added.
Chris Harto, senior transportation and energy policy analyst for Consumer Report, was more optimistic, saying he believes there will be “more than enough demand to meet the requirements for these standards.”
His group found last year that 36 percent of Americans said that if they were to buy or lease a car they would either definitely opt for or seriously consider an electric vehicle.
However, a Gallup poll released this past week found some Americans to be resistant to EVs. Forty-one percent of respondents said they would not buy an electric vehicle and 43 percent said they might consider it in the future, while 12 percent said they were seriously considering purchasing such a vehicle and 4 percent already have one.
A recent AP-NORC survey, meanwhile, found that 41 percent said they were at least somewhat likely to buy an electric vehicle, while 46 percent said they were either not too likely or not at all likely.
In the AP-NORC poll, respondents cited cost and availability of charging stations as the most common major reasons not to buy electric vehicles, but also pointed to the state of current battery technology, a preference for gas-powered cars and charging speed.
While electric vehicles currently tend to cost more than their gas-powered equivalent, Corey Cantor, an analyst with BloombergNEF, said that by the end of the decade, electric vehicles could become less expensive than their fossil fuel-counterparts.
“It’s really about … getting new battery chemistries up and running,” Cantor said. “When you take the cobalt and the nickel out of the battery, you’re just able to make it more affordable because lithium is quite a bit more plentiful.”
Abuelsamid, with Guidehouse Insights, added that more electric vehicles are needed in mainstream categories rather than luxury categories. He said the cars being made in larger quantities could help with that.
“As we get more plants building new components, the cost of those components goes down,” he said.
As far as chargers go, the U.S. also has work to do. The White House said in February that there were about 130,000 public chargers in the country, while the president has set a goal of reaching 500,000 chargers by 2030.
However, Amaiya Khardenavis, an EV Charging Infrastructure analyst at Wood Mackenzie. said his company found that the country would need three times as many — 1.5 million public chargers – to meet the president’s previously stated goal of 50 percent of new sales being electric by 2030.
Khardenavis said the organization hasn’t done a new analysis on the EPA’s proposal, but said it’s safe to say an even greater number would be needed to service the increased target.
But there does appear to be significant private sector interest, with companies ranging from Mercedes-Benz to Walmart to Subway saying they want to build new electric vehicle chargers.
“There’s a lot of players right now who are all coming from different sectors … and trying to address this issue,” Khardenavis said. “Just because the challenge is so big we need everyone to … come together.”
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