The Conservatives risk driving a wedge between themselves and the electorate

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Britain’s Conservatives are one of the most successful political parties in the history of democracy worldwide. In power for 64 of the last 100 years, a record bested in the developed world only by Canada’s Liberals. The Tories have been victorious in 13 elections: you can accuse them of many things, but not knowing how to win is not one of them.

This makes their current predicament intriguing. If there’s one party anywhere that will view an almost year-long 20-point deficit in the polls as recoverable, it’s the Conservatives. But if there’s one party anywhere that will be confident that it can close that gap by focusing more on divisive issues than on delivering solutions to the very tangible crises afflicting the public, it’s also the Conservatives.

On the surface, the belief that their past strategies will deliver again is not unreasonable. In 2015’s general election, the Tories secured a Commons majority after trailing in the polls for almost all of the preceding five years. Where recent campaigns gave them a victory — including 2019’s sizeable win — Conservatives ran disciplined campaigns that consolidated the right.

But the political and social landscape of today’s UK is very different.

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For a so-called wedge issue to have the desired effect, two things must be true. First, the issue must be seen as one of the most important facing the country. Second, the electorate must have a clear belief that the party driving the wedge also has the solution. Do either of these things apply to current Tory campaigns?

It’s instructive to look at some classic examples. In 2001 in Australia, a migrant boat incident pushed the issue of border security right up among the most important issues facing the country, prompting tough rhetoric from the governing Liberal party. Forced to respond with its own position on what was now the dominant topic of national conversation, the opposition splintered and fell behind on the issue. The Liberals enjoyed an immediate boost in the polls and went on to win the election.

The UK’s referendum on EU membership in 2016 offered, essentially, another immigration wedge. As the vote approached, the topic leapt to the top of the pollsters rankings of the most salient issues. An unedifying national debate ensued; 70 per cent of voters ended up feeling that leaving the EU would improve the situation. With immigration front of mind, and Brexit the favoured solution, 52 per cent of the electorate was wedged off and the rest is history.

In 2019, the Tories won a hefty majority by harnessing an incomplete Brexit as perhaps the ultimate wedge issue. As the election approached, people talked of little other than how Brexit would be implemented. When the Conservatives channelled that omnipresent conversation through the simple and repeated assurance that they would “get Brexit done”, voters bought it, leaving the opposition prevaricating.

Evidently, then, wedge issues can be incredibly effective when deployed skilfully. The problem for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives is that none of the necessary conditions apply for him to prevail using the same strategy this time.

For all the headlines about small boats, immigration still ranks in fourth or fifth place among Britons’ most pressing issues on an average of recent polls, far behind the cost of living crisis, as well as behind the NHS and the wider economy.

Brexit was seen as a means to reduce immigration, and voting Tory in 2019 was viewed as a way to deliver Brexit. But now, voters think the Tories are less likely to solve the immigration challenges than their Labour rivals, and grow more certain of this with each passing month.

With salience low, there is no pressure on the opposition to formulate a position of its own, which is a bonus when it would struggle to find one that convinces all of its voters. With the Tories’ proposed solutions ringing hollow, each attempt to raise the topic up the list of what the voters care about only reminds the electorate of the party’s weaknesses. Continuing to pursue this strategy regardless, the risk is that instead of the wedge splitting the opposition into two, it merely cleaves the Tories and their base further away from the rest of the electorate.

john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch