Stock markets remain volatile amid slowdown fears; Deliveroo hits profit milestone – business live

There’s a one in three chance of a US recession by the end of this year, JP Morgan analysts fear.

JPMorgan Chase & Co now sees a 35% chance that the US economy tips into a recession by the end of 2024, Bloomberg reports.

That’s up from 25% as of the start of last month, before weak data from the US industrial sector and a hiring slowdown worried economists.

JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman told clients:

[Recent news] hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,”

The team kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%.

With volatility high, global markets are settling into “a yo-yo pattern” as volatility remains high, says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown:

“Markets may have simmered down but this roller-coaster week isn’t over yet. UK markets opened lower in a move that unwinds a good chunk of yesterday’s gains.

Corporate earnings are starting to slow but there’s plenty for traders to get their teeth into.

Deliveroo hit two of its major financial milestones over the first half centred around positive free cash flow and profitability. Commentary suggested encouraging behaviour from those looking for a quick bite to eat, but second quarter volumes were weaker than expected across both the UK and international markets.

Elsewhere, Ladbrokes owner Entain delivered a good half and upped guidance, while Persimmon saw a boost from higher selling prices – more detailed comments below.

US futures point to a muted open today after major indices lost ground yesterday.

UK housebuilder Persimmon is aiming to build more than 10,000 new houses this year.

Persimmon has reported that it’s on track to complete 10,500 houses this financial year, which is at the top end of its previous guidance.

In the first half of this year, completions are up 5% at 4,445 to new homes.

Persimmon says it is encouraged by the Labour government’s plans, particularly around planning, adding:

Consumer confidence continues to improve leading to a strong pick up in enquiries and visitors, which will be further supported by the recent cut to the Bank of England base rate.

Shares in Persimmon are up 2.3%, making it a rare riser on the FTSE 100 in early trading.

As feared, stocks in London have fallen back with a bump.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 share index is down 92 points in early trading, a drop of 1.1%, to 8075 points.

That reverses more than half of Wednesday’s rally, which had taken the index back near its levels at the end of last week.

The smaller FTSE 250 share index is also down over 1%.

Delivery group Deliveroo has hit its goal of making a profit, at least for the first six months of the year.

Deliveroo has reported a profit of £1m for the first half of the financial year, up from a loss of £83m in H1 2023.

This looks to be its first half-year profit since the company floated on the stock market in 2021.

Will Shu, founder and CEO of Deliveroo, said changes such as improving its loyalty programme had helped:

“I am pleased with the performance we have achieved this half, which was driven by effective execution of our growth and profitability initiatives.

As a result, we reached two major financial milestones: positive free cash flow and positive profit for the period.”

Total orders rose 2% in the quarter, while the gross transaction value (GTV) of each order rose 5%.

Shu says:

Looking ahead, while there is continued uncertainty in the external environment, I am encouraged by the inflection we are currently seeing in consumer behaviour in many of our markets

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Market jitters have not abated, after a disappointing end to trading on Wall Street last night.

European markets are set to open with a bump, wiping out some of yesterday’s recovery.

Investors are anxious after a bright start on the New York exchange faded by the close last night. The S&P 500 index fell 0.77% by close of trading, having been up 1% in early trading after dovish noises from the Bank of Japan supported shares earlier on Wednesday.

That weakness has worried traders. Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, sums up the mood:

The US stock market wobbled and wavered on Wednesday, ultimately fizzling out as the day’s recovery hopes melted away like a popsicle in the summer sun.

Nvidia and other tech behemoths kicked off the day with gusto but quickly lost steam as if deciding to take an unexpected afternoon snooze. This lethargy led to a broader market slump.

There remains anxiety that US policymakers may not pull off a ‘soft landing’, as they try to cool inflation without causing a recession. Geopolitical tensions are another worry.

Innes adds:

The potential for a broader U.S. economic slowdown, misaligned global monetary policies, and the bubbling geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cast long, ominous shadows across financial markets.

Furthermore, the U.S. political election looms, potentially turning the markets into more of a chaotic mosh pit than a graceful waltz.

Prepare for a potentially “Turbulent Thursday” and brace for what might become a “Frantic Friday.”

IT firm Super Micro Computer led the Wall Street rout, falling 20% after its latest results missed analyst expectations.

This has pushed stocks down in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.75% and South Korea’s Kospi has lose 0.7%.

European markets are set to open lower too:

The latest US weekly jobless claims data, due before Wall Street reopens, will set the mood. Economists expect around 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefit, down from 249,000 the previous week.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com, explains:

Whether we see further volatility in the short term mostly depends on tonight’s US jobless claims number.

In a week lacking significant event risk, the jobless claims in the most critical piece of information the markets are likely to receive, especially given that the plunge in equities was stoked by data signalling the US labour market could be rolling over.

The agenda

• 9.30am BST: UK mortgage and landlord possession statistics for April-June
  11am BST: Ireland’s inflation report for July

• 1.30pm BST: Weekly US jobless claims