IDC India forecast a 5-8% on-year growth in 2024 with shipments expected to hit 148 million units, and Counterpoint Research pegged it at 5% with shipments in the 155-157 million range. CMR India estimates overall smartphone shipments to grow by 8-9% with 5G shipments anticipated to grow 40% year-on-year, while TechArc expects the growth at 3-4%.
The rebound is expected after the Indian smartphone market fell in volume terms for two years as demand in the entry-level segment got hit due to adverse macroeconomic factors, which led to higher prices, as well as the pandemic. Smartphone shipments in 2020 declined 1.7%, but bounced back in 2021, growing 7% due to pent-up demand. The market declined 10% in 2022 and is expected to fall or at best be flat in 2023.
“The industry is expected to enter 2024 with a clean slate, after a good festive season where they could liquidate their inventories, unlike how the brands entered 2023 with higher levels of inventory from the previous festive season,” said Shilpi Jain, senior analyst, Counterpoint Research.
