Heat stress reduces productivity through increased mortality and health impacts and loss of working hours. By 2050, it is estimated to cost as much as 2.8% of India’s GDP. With rising incomes and drop in prices due to growing demand, sales of cooling systems including air conditioners (ACs) have increased. They will continue to do so. Today, only 13% of Indian households have ACs. By 2040, this will rise to 69%. As more people are able to buy some respite from the heat, AC manufacturers will laugh their way to the bank. But there are consequences.
The rise of urban heat islands due to increased AC use will drive up temperatures in urban areas, altering natural cooling and precipitation patterns. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cooling are estimated to account for at least 7% of India’s total emissions by 2037. The challenge is to meet rising cooling needs in an energy-efficient manner that does not increase GHG emissions. The India Cooling Action Plan, launched in 2019, provides a policy framework. It aims at reducing cooling energy requirements by 25-40% by 2037-38. It will require adoption of passive and active measures. These include better construction using design, building materials, landscaping and cool roofs to reduce cooling needs. The adoption of systems like district cooling – creating a network of buildings cooled through a central unit – will bring in energy efficiencies and reduce costs. These efforts must be accompanied by increased greening of habitations. Tackling rising heat will require changes in the way we plan and build our towns and cities, and the way we travel. It is also an economic opportunity – cooling requirements are expected to create up to $1.6 trillion in investment opportunities.
