xcess deaths in England and Wales jumped sharply at the end of 2022, with a mixture of flu, cold weather and access to emergency care likely to have contributed to a spike in mortality, new figures show.
The number of registered deaths was 20% above average in the week ending December 30 and 21% above average in the week to December 23, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
These are some of the highest levels recorded across 2022 – a year that saw above-average deaths almost continuously since the summer.
Health experts have warned against “simplistic” explanations for what is causing the rise in excess mortality, saying the picture is “complex” and needs further investigation.
Levels remain particularly high among people dying at home, where deaths were 37% above average in the week to December 30, compared with 20% higher for care homes and 15% higher for hospitals.
Of the 684 excess deaths in private homes in the last week of 2022, only 26 (4%) involved Covid-19.
By contrast, deaths involving flu and pneumonia have “increased in recent weeks”, the ONS said, accounting for 22% of all the deaths registered in England and Wales in the week to December 30, up from 17% the previous week and 15% at the start of December.
Excess deaths, or extra deaths, are the number of deaths that are above the five-year average for the specific period.
Dr Veena Raleigh, senior fellow at the health charity The King’s Fund, said there had been a “trend of as-yet-unexplained high numbers of deaths throughout the second half of 2022”, with “many factors” likely to have contributed to the rise, besides flu and Covid-19.
“The numbers of deaths will be affected by a range of other factors including the cold weather spell in December, the availability of services including emergency care, and the continued effects of some patients’ healthcare needs going unmet during the pandemic,” she added.
“As the picture is complex, simplistic explanations about the causes of rising excess deaths since summer 2022, and in particular about the latest data, are unhelpful.
“Detailed data analyses by the ONS, Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, NHS England and other agencies are needed to establish what’s driving the current increase in excess deaths.”
