Scientists give damning verdict on Europe’s catastrophic heatwave: ‘Tens of thousands will die’

The extreme heatwaves seen across Europe and North America in July will be regular occurrences in future years, according to meteorologists – and would have been ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change.

A study conducted by World Weather Attribution also found the heatwave in China this month was at least 50 times more likely due to the continued burning of fossil fuels.

These three regions have all experienced record-breaking temperatures exceeding 45C in recent weeks, leading to heat alerts, wildfires and heat-related deaths.

Using climate modelling to compare today’s conditions – following about 1.2C of global warming due to human activity – with previous climatic conditions, the team found such extreme events will now be expected approximately once every ten years in southern Europe, and once every 15 years in North America. 

China can expect severe heatwaves once every five years.

The research also suggests heatwaves are more intense under the influence of greenhouse gas emissions than they would have been otherwise, with the European heatwave 2.5C hotter and the North American heatwave 2C hotter because of climate change.

‘The result of this attribution study is not surprising,’ said co-author Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London. ‘The world hasn’t stopped burning fossil fuels, the climate continues to warm and heatwaves continue to become more extreme. It is that simple.

‘However, these heatwaves are not evidence of “runaway warming” or “climate collapse”. We still have time to secure a safe and healthy future, but we urgently need to stop burning fossil fuels and invest in decreasing vulnerability. If we do not, tens of thousands of people will keep dying from heat-related causes each year.

‘It is absolutely critical that governments legislate fossil fuel phase out at this year’s COP climate conference.’

Last summer, searing temperatures across Europe led to more than 60,000 deaths.

‘Heat is among the deadliest types of disaster,’ said Julie Arrighi, director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

‘We need a cultural shift in the way we think about extreme heat. Extreme heat is deadly and rapidly on the rise. It is crucial to scale warning systems, heat action plans and investments in long-term adaptation measures. This includes urban planning and bolstering resilience of critical systems such as health, electricity, water and transport.

‘To save lives during extreme heat, we need to look after the most vulnerable – this includes older people, people with underlying health conditions, people without housing, and communities with reduced access to cool spaces that can be lifelines during extreme heat.’

The study, conducted by researchers from universities and meteorological agencies in the Netherlands, the UK and the US, noted that while the current El Niño phenomenon likely contributed to the heatwaves in some regions, increased global temperatures from burning fossil fuels is the main reason the heatwaves are so severe.

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