“The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing quickly enough to meet almost all this additional appetite, suggesting we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions,” IEA director Faith Birol said.
The share of wind and solar in the power generation mix is seen rising to 35% in 2025 from 29% in 2022.
Growth in global electricity demand meanwhile is expected to rise by one percentage point from 2022 to an average of 3% over the next three years to 29,281 terawatt-hours (TWh), or double the current consumption of Japan, the report said.
Highlighting the need for more clean energy, the IEA linked the rise in the world’s energy demand to climate change as heatwaves in India caused the highest peak power demand yet in the country and summer droughts reduced hydropower supplies in Europe.
The largest gains in renewable power expected in the Asia Pacific region, with an 11.6% yearly average growth rate, followed by Europe with a 9.4% yearly growth rate, and the Americas, with a 5% growth rate average per year.
Asia also dominates demand growth, with more than 70% expected from China, India and south-east Asia, although trends in China are uncertain, the report said. Nuclear supply was seen rising by 3.6% per year on average to 2025, with the largest yearly growth rate in the Middle East at 24.5%, from 26 to 50 TWh, followed by Asia Pacific and Europe, up 6.6% and 4.2% on average per year respectively.
Production from gas-fired power plants in Europe is forecast to fall, but significant growth in gas-fired production in the Middle East is likely to limit the decrease, the report said.
The IEA projects European gas-fired production falling from the 822 TWh recorded in 2022 to 581 TWh, down 29% in three years, with emissions falling 1,023 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 to 763 Mt CO2, down about 10% per year.
Gas-production in the Middle East was forecast to rise from 973 TWh in 2022 to 1,094 TWh in 2025, up 12.4%, though emissions are expected to fall by 14 Mt CO2 over that same period, down 1.9%, as coal power’s share is expected to drop to just 4 TWh.
