Quad ministers also announced a new initiative on critical minerals to reduce dependency on China. The idea is to diversify and create new supply chains, and 40 private companies from Quad countries were here to discuss ideas. Plans are also afoot for a leaders’ summit later this year.
And, yes, the Americans have committed in writing that Donald Trump will travel. The dates will be decided later as the Indian side works to design a summit to suit the times. Going by the Trump rule – what can’t be said in one page is not worth saying – long speeches won’t be ideal.
All said and done, Quad is moving along despite doubts from certain quarters and a general suspicion of ‘groups’ among Trump supporters. The US system seems to see value in the Quad, even if the president appears indifferent.
S Jaishankar also met top US officials, including defence secretary Pete Hegseth, FBI director Kash Patel, director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, besides his counterpart Marco Rubio. The visit was India’s first political engagement with the US since Operation Sindoor. Jaishankar insisted the matter of Trump’s repeated claims of mediation did not come up.
What did come up was Quad members – who maintained neutrality when India launched Op Sindoor – ‘unequivocally’ condemning all acts of terrorism, including cross-border terrorism – without naming Pakistan. The language was mostly a repeat from older statements, but updated with the location of the latest atrocity, Pahalgam.
After the shock of the SCO statement where Pahalgam wasn’t mentioned at all – but Balochistan was – and Rajnath Singh refused to sign, the Quad joint statement was an improvement with all boxes checked. The ministers have pared down the group’s agenda to four main pillars: maritime and transnational security, economic security, critical and emerging technology, and humanitarian assistance. Will the ‘common minimum programme’ encourage Trump to remember the Quad?
Frankly, Trump is too busy making deals with China after threatening massive tariffs and then backing down when the shoe started pinching, after China restricted supplies of critical minerals. Now it seems Trump wants to visit China with a large business delegation.
‘America First’ means jobs at home, and if China can create them, he doesn’t mind. For Trump, tech denial is a temporary tool, not a strategy that when combined with unpredictability can be lethal.
What do these confusing signals mean for the Quad? Remember, it was created, revived and propagated to balance/counter China.
Meanwhile, even as the July 4 ‘deadline’ for firming up the India-US trade deal is upon us – not to mention the expiry date for the 90-day Trump tariffs on July 9 – Trump has given the green signal to senator Lindsey Graham to move his bill in Congress that threatens 500% tariffs on countries trading with Russia. Graham wants to drop this ‘economic bunker buster’ on India and China, since they are the largest buyers of Russian oil.
Whether the bill would pass is unclear. Diplomatic efforts are underway to persuade the senator to give India a carve-out to keep the Big, Beautiful US-India strategic partnership going. And Quad too.
Incidentally, all three other Quad members are simultaneously experiencing problems with the US. But they have decided to keep calm and carry on. Japan and Australia are upset after Pentagon abruptly demanded they up their defence spending to 3.5% after initially asking for 3%. As for India, no need to repeat the amount of political difficulty caused by the ‘peace president’.
As Jaishankar says, ‘The world is complicated and is growing in its complexity.’ In fact, it’s grown so complicated that on Tuesday when Rajnath Singh spoke to his counterpart Pete Hegseth on the phone and Jaishankar met him in person at the Pentagon, Pakistan’s air force chief Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu was also in the building to meet USAF chief of staff David Allvin, and other senior officials.
Sidhu discussed how to ‘boost interoperability’, do joint exercises, and training and ‘technology exchange’. He also went to the State Department. The army and air force chiefs coming in quick succession means Washington wants Pakistan back in the game. What’s past is prologue, as the Bard of Avon said.
