Pound to Yen Rate Hits 8-year High Following Soft Japanese Inflation Figure
PoundSterlingLIVE – The was softer across the board after Japan reported inflation numbers that offered little incentive for the Bank of Japan to exit its (NIRP).
fell from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year in December, while the core reading fell from 2.5% y/y to 2.3.
“In Japan, CPI continues to decelerate,” says Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, Rates Strategist at Mizuho. “These numbers make a major policy change in January very unlikely.”
exchange rate rose to its highest level in eight years at 188.93 following the inflation numbers, while the Dollar-Yen rose to 148.27.
The Japanese Yen surged into the end of 2023 amidst indications the Bank of Japan was readying to exit the NIRP, but this rally also reflected rising bets for interest rate cuts at other major central banks.
2024 is a story of these rate cut bets being pared, boosting the likes of the Pound, Euro and Dollar while the earthquake in Japan and these inflation figures question any imminent exit from NIRP.
The Yen is understandably back under pressure.
“To add on top of the sluggish data seen lately, the BoJ rhetoric has been cautious to not fuel any rate-change expectations and the 1 January earthquake likely adds to the desire to be patient for now,” says Gomez-Liechti.
Mizuho says April is now the firm favourite for a policy change.
“With energy prices declining, we expect the BoJ to revise down its core CPI forecast from 2.8% to around 2.5% when the next outlook report is released at the January monetary policy meeting,” says Takuji Aida, Chief Economist for Japan at Crédit Agricole.
He explains inflation is not running at the high level the central bank expected when it revised up its CPI forecast back in October. “The likelihood that the BoJ is pushed to tighten policy due to strong inflationary pressures remaining on the economy has likely decreased.”
According to Aida, structural deflationary pressure will likely suppress domestic demand and push core-core CPI far below 2% in 2025.
Crédit Agricole says Japan’s soft inflation can be attributed to excessive savings by the country’s corporations, and it will only be in 2025 when the next cyclical recovery of the global economy materialises that inflationary pressure will likely strengthen.
He says any shift in Bank of Japan policy – i.e. raising interest rates – could undermine the return to sustained inflation in 2025.
An original version of this article can be viewed at Pound Sterling Live
