Long ago, in May 1960, an American U-2 spy plane took off from Pakistan to fly at high altitude across the Soviet Union as part of a mission to photograph key facilities and military sites on behalf of the CIA. The Russians saw it and shot it down. The pilot, Gary Powers, managed to descend by parachute and was arrested. In Washington, the Eisenhower administration lied about his mission, claiming the U-2 was a “weather plane” that had strayed off course after its pilot had “difficulties with his oxygen equipment” (sound familiar?).
The incident caused a temporary poisoning of US-Soviet relations as the Kremlin turned it into political theatre. Moscow subjected Powers to a highly publicised criminal trial and gave him a 10-year sentence.
In the US, Powers was portrayed as an all-American clean-cut hero who neither smoked nor drank (which was not true). In spite of the mutual fury neither side was genuinely shocked, since it was accepted that spying was routine. The technology might change as improvements were made in information-gathering systems, but the practice of surveillance went back to time immemorial and could not be stopped.
The analogy with the US downing of a Chinese high-altitude balloon that intruded into US airspace last week is clear. It too produced a hurricane of hypocritical outrage. The Republicans attacked Joe Biden for being weak and failing to protect US national security. They said he should have shot the intruding balloon down as soon as it was spotted. Fearful of being seen as too old to run for a second term, Biden ordered his secretary of state to delay a planned visit to Beijing.
In a pathetic parody of the political row in Washington, the UK government promptly ordered a review of Britain’s security. Rishi Sunak forestalled any Labour charges of being weak on defence by announcing that RAF jets were on standby to shoot down any Chinese surveillance balloons that penetrated UK airspace. What about Chinese spy satellites? Are they also going to be taken out by doughty British pilots?
The reality is that using technology to spy on other states’ military capabilities is as old as it is widespread. So is the use of covert tools to discover another government’s intentions. The methods are constantly being updated. Listening devices and phone-tapping have now been supplemented by cyber systems to hack emails and other internet messaging. An Israeli company, NSO Group, has – as well documented in the Guardian developed the Pegasus technology that can listen to conversations, read SMS texts, take screenshots and access people’s lists of contacts. It has sold the system to a range of authoritarian foreign governments that want to monitor their own citizens’ views and behaviour.
Phone-tapping and cyber surveillance are not only done by governments to potential or actual enemies. Remember the row in 2013 that erupted during Barack Obama’s presidency after Edward Snowden revealed that the US National Security Agency had been listening to German chancellor Angela Merkel’s mobile phone conversations for years. The Germans were almost as embarrassed as the Americans. Merkel angrily declared that “spying between friends just isn’t on” but an inquiry by the German federal prosecutor was quietly dropped.
Let’s face it. Spying is a benefit. The more that countries know about a potential enemy’s defence systems the better it usually is. Starting hostilities is less likely if you have accurate and up-to-date information about what your army is up against (a lesson Vladimir Putin failed to learn before 24 February last year).
Understanding another state’s or another leader’s intentions is even more important, whether this intelligence-gathering is performed by spies, diplomats and non-governmental political analysts or by what are politely called “technical means”. The crucial issue, which no amount of balloons or satellites can provide, is empathy. Put yourself in the other side’s shoes. Understand their history, culture and the economic and political pressures their leaders are under.
There is no doubt that the relationship between the US and China is the leading global security challenge of at least the next 10 years. The two countries are rivals and competitors, but they are not enemies. Everything should be done by western countries not to slip into a mindset that treats China as hostile. Peace in Asia – and indeed the whole world – is too important to be hijacked by hysterical excitement over a roving balloon.
