Not a meltdown Pakistan can afford

The arrest of former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan on corruption charges on Tuesday has unleashed violence by his supporters. It has shored up Khan’s image as a David taking on the Goliath of the Pakistani military establishment – which once backed him – and its civilian government. With elections due later this year, short-term benefits of this anarchic show of support may be big for Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek- e-Insaf (PTI). But it is inflicting a heavy cost on Pakistan, already battered by a polycrisis of its own.

Pakistan desperately needs to jump-start the $6.5 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has been stalled because the Pakistani government failed to meet loan conditions. The political turmoil resulting from Khan’s demand for early elections is further endangering the bailout package. Failure to put the IMF bailout back on track could push Pakistan towards default post-June as its reserves are low. Khan may have succeeded in demonstrating the popular support he enjoys. But by refusing to back down from his demand for early general elections – the polls must be held by mid-October; Khan wants them earlier – he has put his country’s stability at serious risk. For its part, Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif-led government, too, needs to weigh the political implications of its actions. Arresting Khan on corruption charges in the Toshakhana case has only served to embolden the former prime minister.

Pakistan is at the proverbial fork, as well as close to the proverbial brink. While this may elicit schadenfreude from some quarters in India, an existential crisis for Pakistan is something the neighbourhood can ill afford to be sanguine about. A further atomised Pakistan is a nightmare.