Global Economy

Likely damage to sown crops stokes food inflation worries


The intense rainfall spell over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana is expected to “decrease significantly” in the coming days, but experts believe the rains to have caused significant damage to the already sown kharif crops in the north-western states.

The damage to the moong, urad, groundnut and soybean crops could range 10-15%, leading to concerns about a significant increase in prices of these commodities, they said. But the rains could help the paddy crop in Punjab and Haryana. “The excessive rainfall has caused damage to kharif crops such as cotton, pulses and oilseeds in the northern states,” said Rahul Chauhan of commodity research firm iGrain India.

In the northwest, while Rajasthan has received nearly 60% more rains than the long period average till July 10, Gujarat received 15% more, according to the IMD. With Cyclone Biparjoy bringing rains to Gujarat and Rajasthan in early June, sowing for the kharif season had started early. The recent heavy rainfall could have damaged the plants which were in the germination stage.

Likely Damage to Sown CropsStokes Food Inflation Worries

“The actual damage can only be assessed after the rains subside and farmers can visit their field to take a look at their crops,” said Tanmay Kumar Deepak, head of research at AgriWatch, an agri research firm.

While Punjab and Haryana have also witnessed excessive rainfall in the last few days – falling in IMD’s category of “large excess” – it could help the paddy crop which requires standing water, Deepak said.The incessant rains in several northern states have led the IMD to issue advisory for farmers in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. It has asked farmers to postpone transplanting of rice in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand. It has also requested farmers to postpone sowing of maize, kharif pulses, soybean and vegetables in Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand.In its latest forecast on Monday, the IMD has predicted widespread rainfall to continue over Gujarat, and heavy to very heavy rainfall in Rajasthan. It has also predicted extremely heavy rainfall activity over Northeast India and adjoining East India in the next three days. Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan Sikkim and West Bengal are expected to get extremely heavy rainfall till July 12. It has issued an orange alert for parts of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim till July 12.

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