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Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, will on Tuesday vow to bring the blue wall of Conservative seats in southern England “tumbling down” at the next election, in a bullish closing speech to his party conference.
Privately, Davey’s allies are realistic about Lib Dem prospects — a doubling of the party’s current tally of 15 seats to 30 would be seen as a good result — but the party could still play a key role at the election expected next year.
Davey’s closing speech in Bournemouth will label the Conservatives, with whom the Lib Dems formed a coalition between 2010-15, as “more like a bad TV soap opera than a functioning government”.
He will focus on health, including “reversing cuts to GP numbers and guaranteeing an appointment when you need one, tackling life-threatening ambulance delays and improving access to NHS dentists”.
But the conference in Bournemouth saw Davey accused by Lib Dem activists of watering down the party’s commitment to building new homes, a policy deemed to be unpopular in the Tory shires.
The leadership suffered a bruising defeat over a move to drop their national housebuilding target following a rebellion led by young liberals. The proposal, which had been supported by Davey, was seen as totemic of what some argue is the party’s failure to adopt bold goals in an effort to appeal to anti-development voters in Tory seats.
“Young people do not support this move, we cannot afford to lose young people’s votes again,” said delegate Janey Little. Members voted to retain the party’s target of 380,000 new homes a year.
Davey has, however, abandoned the party’s plan to raise income tax by 1 percentage point to fund NHS improvements — another retreat deemed vital to winning over wavering Tory voters.
And the Lib Dem leader has been left squirming in interviews as he tries to avoid talking about the party’s long-term objective of taking Britain back into the EU.
Like Labour, the Lib Dems need to attract former Leave supporters. Both parties have also concluded that while British voters have turned against Brexit, they currently have little appetite to reopen the EU psychodrama.
Pollster Sir John Curtice argued at a fringe event that the Lib Dems were losing ground to Labour because they were not taking a strong stance on rejoining the EU.
But Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader, insisted the party was being pragmatic and added that nobody could doubt the Lib Dems’ motivation in politics: “We have internationalism running through our veins,” she said.
But many voters have been left confused by the party’s stance. Polling suggests they do not have any idea what Lib Dems stand for, other than being determined to oust Rishi Sunak from 10 Downing Street.
“The most successful message for us on the doorstep, by a country mile, is that we are the best placed to get rid of the Tories in your area,” said one Lib Dem official.
Beyond the Tory-bashing, the party will fight the next election with just two key national themes: improving the NHS and working to protect the environment. It has made particular headway with voters through its campaign against the dumping of sewage in rivers.
“It’s not true we don’t have policies,” joked one ally of Davey. “We are the party of shit.”
One insider said the most important voters for the Lib Dems to target were older people who could be swung away from the Conservatives. But the party will also fight a highly localised campaign, focusing on the concerns and persuasions of local people in each of their target seats, which has prompted claims that Davey is pandering to “Nimbyism” on housing.
Apart from Sheffield Hallam, a Labour constituency, all of the Lib Dem target seats in England are held by Conservative MPs. The majority are in wealthy areas in the south or west of England. Cooper said Sunak’s decision to delay policies to tackle climate change had gone down “disastrously” for the Conservatives in those areas.
Party insiders confirmed that target seats include London commuter towns such as Esher, Harpenden, Carshalton, the Sussex constituencies of Lewes and Eastbourne and Somerset towns like Glastonbury and Frome.
Further north the party hopes to win seats in the Manchester suburbs of Hazel Grove and Cheadle, as well as regaining them from the Scottish National party in Mid Dunbartonshire and the Inverness area.
Meanwhile, the party has been buoyed by a £1mn boost to its coffers, its biggest single donation since 2019.
Two officials told the Financial Times that the money was a legacy donation from a deceased lawyer. One said the funds would “transform” the party’s campaign efforts.
