Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party would win a majority of more than 140 seats if a general election was held this week, according to a poll of over 10,000 voters.
But the survey suggested that there is still a lot to play for ahead of an election expected next year, with a large bloc of undecided voters more likely to lean towards Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
Sunak is expected to call a general election next year, with January 2025 the latest point for him to go to the polls.
The survey of 10,140 people by Focaldata for the Best for Britain campaign group gave Labour 35 per cent of the vote against 23 per cent for the Conservatives, enough to deliver a landslide for Starmer’s party.
The poll suggests Labour would win 470 seats against just 129 for the Conservatives, although this represents a narrowing of the gap from a similar Focaldata poll last autumn. Back then Labour was leading the Tories by 42 per cent to 18 per cent.
However, a closer reading of the latest poll shows that Britain could still be heading for a hung parliament if Sunak can convince a substantial bloc of undecided voters to come out on election day.
According to the pollster, the majority of undecided voters in England — who comprise about an eighth of the total electorate — are more likely to favour the Conservatives if they can be persuaded to vote.
“The education profile of undecided voters continues to skew heavily to poll respondents who are non-university educated,” said Focaldata. “When we allocate undecided voters according to the relative similarities in education profiles in England, the Conservatives receive around 60 per cent and Labour receive around 25 per cent of undecided votes.”
Another potential factor that could make it harder for Labour to win a majority would be if Reform UK, a rightwing pro-Brexit party, stepped aside for the Conservatives in marginal seats, as its predecessor organisations the UK Independence party and the Brexit party did in 2017 and 2019.
Focaldata found that combining both scenarios would wreck Labour’s chances of a big majority, leaving it with as few as 316 seats against 286 for the Conservative party.
The survey took place between April 20 and May 9 and asked voters across Great Britain which party they would vote for if a general election was held tomorrow.
Isaac Levido, Sunak’s chief strategy guru, believes there is a “narrow path” to victory if the Tories stick to a disciplined message ahead of the election.
Levido recently told MPs that victory for the Conservative party would depend on getting out the large number of undecided voters who he said overwhelmingly preferred Sunak to Starmer.
Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said that Labour’s lead “looks healthy” but acknowledged that it had fallen substantially since the last Focaldata poll in the autumn. Back then the Tory party was suffering a slump in popularity in the wake of the disastrous “mini Budget” during the brief premiership of Liz Truss.
“The next election still looks like Labour’s to lose but the high number of undecided voters and marginal seats coupled with the threat of rightwing parties working together suggests victory is far from in the bag,” she said.
“That’s why, when the starting pistol on the next general election is fired, Best for Britain will unleash the most powerful tactical voting operation the UK has ever seen,” Smith added.
