Apple has a challenge ahead as investors remain downbeat about the iPhone maker’s upcoming launch, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on the stock but lowered his price target by $5 to $230. The firm’s new forecast still suggests nearly 30% upside from Thursday’s close. “We believe share price outperformance in the remainder of the year (particularly after a strong outperformance in 1H and underperformance between July and September) is dependent on beating what are now low investor expectations for the iPhone 15 launch,” Chatterjee wrote in the Friday note. Apple is expected to announce the new iPhone at a media event Tuesday. Apple shares have plunged nearly 8.5% so far this quarter, with most of those losses occurring this week after several reports suggested that Chinese government workers could be banned from using Apple’s iPhones. Even if next week’s iPhone revenue and volume expectations beat low investor expectations, the stock’s upside for the remainder of 2023 will be limited by Apple’s year-to-date outperformance and an earnings multiple that is at about a 61% premium to the second half of 2019, he said. This time around could be similar to a period when Apple’s shares outperformed by meeting or beating low investor expectations for the iPhone 11, he said. According to Chatterjee, investors should expect that given that the iPhone 15 does not include material upgrades, the average consumer will largely be driven by the desire to replace and/or upgrade their current models. A price increase across all iPhones, instead of only the Pro models, will incentivize consumers to choose the higher-end devices, he added. Despite near-term headwinds, however, the analyst maintained his “favorable outlook” on Apple’s iPhone and services revenue, and he sees catalysts to accelerate revenue growth and upside potential. The stock is still up 36.6% for the year. “We see upside in several aspects of the business as well as financials that remain underappreciated by investors, namely the transformation of the company to Services, growth in the installed base, technology leadership, and optionality around capital deployment — all of which together lead us to expect double-digit earnings growth and a modest re-rating for the shares,” Chatterjee said. — Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
