Does the February share price for Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Napco Security Technologies
The Model
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$17.1m | US$44.5m | US$60.8m | US$76.7m | US$91.2m | US$103.9m | US$114.6m | US$123.6m | US$131.2m | US$137.7m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 36.51% | Est @ 26.18% | Est @ 18.95% | Est @ 13.88% | Est @ 10.34% | Est @ 7.86% | Est @ 6.12% | Est @ 4.91% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5% | US$15.8 | US$37.8 | US$47.6 | US$55.4 | US$60.7 | US$63.7 | US$64.8 | US$64.4 | US$63.0 | US$61.0 |
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$534m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$138m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.1%) = US$2.2b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.2b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= US$970m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$31.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 23% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Napco Security Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.080. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Napco Security Technologies
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- No major weaknesses identified for NSSC.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Napco Security Technologies, there are three pertinent elements you should assess:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 2 warning signs with Napco Security Technologies (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
- Future Earnings: How does NSSC’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.
Find out whether Napco Security Technologies is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
