Introduction: Interest rate rises to hit UK growth next year
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Rising interest rates are set to slow the UK economy next year, casting a pall over the country in a likely election year.
The EY Item Club, the economic forecasting group, has halved its forecast for UK economic growth in 2024 to 0.8%, down from the 1.9% projected in April.
The 2025 GDP growth forecast has also been downgraded, from 2.3% to 1.7%.
These growth downgrades are due to the increase in UK interest rate over the last 20 months, from 0.1% in December 2021 to 5% today.
EY ITEM Club predict two further interest rate rises from the Bank of England, in August and September, meaning Bank Rate peaks at 5.5%.
That will further slow growth, and put more pressure on mortgage holders, with over one million households across Britain are expected to lose at least 20% of their disposable incomes to surging mortgage costs.
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, says:
“The inflation and interest rate outlook is a key risk for the forecast. Should inflation prove more stubborn than expected, the prospect of even more rate rises than we expect will come very much into play. On the other hand, the potential is there for inflation to fall faster than expected, as June’s outturn demonstrated.
But the good news is that the economy remains on course to avoid recession, with the UK economy is expected to grow 0.4% in 2023, up from the 0.2% growth seen three months ago.
Beck explains:
“At the moment, the boost from less expensive energy in particular means the EY ITEM Club doesn’t believe recent interest rate rises will push the consumer sector or wider economy into recession. And although the current rate rising cycle doesn’t appear to be over yet, current market expectations for Bank Rate to climb to around 6% seem unlikely to come to pass.
That said, how the Bank of England perceives things will be key and, should it opt for a more hawkish stance, there is a real risk that interest rates could continue to ratchet up to a level where even the protection afforded by healthy household and business balance sheets isn’t enough to prevent a recession. On that count, the next few months – and what they tell us about just how sticky inflation and strong pay growth are – will be crucial.”
The path for economic growth could influence Rishi Sunak’s decision on when to call the next election, with senior Conservatives urging him to go to the polls in the spring.
Also coming up today
City minister Andrew Griffith is expected to write to the chief executives of 19 banks, building societies and digital challengers today, to warn them that regulations around politically exposed persons are “being applied in a disproportionate manner by some financial institutions”.
Griffith will summon bank chiefs for a meeting to discuss how customers can be protected from “being de-banked”, following the row after Coutts cut ties with Nigel Farage.
Travel firms and airlines are being urged to reimburse passengers who decide against flying to Rhodes as the Greek island is ravaged by wildfires. One leading consumer group arguing it would be “unconscionable” to withhold refunds.
A string of travel companies have cancelled package holidays to Rhodes, and are now scrambling to repatriate thousands of tourists.
Greek authorities have issued an evacuation order for parts of Corfu, after wildfires broke out on there too.
The agenda
-
9am BST: Flash estimate of eurozone manufacturing and services sectors in July
-
9.30am BST: Flash estimate of UK manufacturing and services sectors in July
-
1.30pm BST: Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the US economy
-
2.45pm BST: Flash estimate of US manufacturing and services sectors in July
Key events
Elon Musk has changed his profile information on Twitter to read “X.com,” which now redirects to a user’s homepage on twitter.com.
Twitter chooses fan-submitted ‘X’ as new logo
Twitter appears to have changed its logo, ditching its signature blue bird in favour of a stylized X.
Chief executive Linda Yaccarino has just tweeted the new logo, a day after owner Elon Musk invited his 149 million followers to suggest an X logo, and said the company would switch if a “good enough X logo” were posted.
Musk also indicated that the logo would probably be changed in future, and “certainly will be refined”.
The move to X is part of Musk’s push to transform Twitter, which he bought for $44bn last year, into an everything app.
And here is the new logo – described by Musk as “minimalist art deco”:
Musk’s rebranding of Twitter as X comes as he struggles to attract advertising and faces increased competition following the launch of Meta’s Threads platform.
Since buying Twitter, he has slashed the workforce and cut costs, and tried to cajole users into paying $8 per month for Twitter Blue.
Twitter’s chief executive, Linda Yaccarino, confirmed the launch of the X brand on Sunday. She tweeted:
“It’s an exceptionally rare thing – in life or in business – that you get a second chance to make another big impression. Twitter made one massive impression and changed the way we communicate.
Now, X will go further, transforming the global town square.”
Yaccarino said X would be “centred in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking” and would be a “global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities”. She added: “X will be the platform that can deliver, well … everything.”
Introduction: Interest rate rises to hit UK growth next year
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Rising interest rates are set to slow the UK economy next year, casting a pall over the country in a likely election year.
The EY Item Club, the economic forecasting group, has halved its forecast for UK economic growth in 2024 to 0.8%, down from the 1.9% projected in April.
The 2025 GDP growth forecast has also been downgraded, from 2.3% to 1.7%.
These growth downgrades are due to the increase in UK interest rate over the last 20 months, from 0.1% in December 2021 to 5% today.
EY ITEM Club predict two further interest rate rises from the Bank of England, in August and September, meaning Bank Rate peaks at 5.5%.
That will further slow growth, and put more pressure on mortgage holders, with over one million households across Britain are expected to lose at least 20% of their disposable incomes to surging mortgage costs.
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, says:
“The inflation and interest rate outlook is a key risk for the forecast. Should inflation prove more stubborn than expected, the prospect of even more rate rises than we expect will come very much into play. On the other hand, the potential is there for inflation to fall faster than expected, as June’s outturn demonstrated.
But the good news is that the economy remains on course to avoid recession, with the UK economy is expected to grow 0.4% in 2023, up from the 0.2% growth seen three months ago.
Beck explains:
“At the moment, the boost from less expensive energy in particular means the EY ITEM Club doesn’t believe recent interest rate rises will push the consumer sector or wider economy into recession. And although the current rate rising cycle doesn’t appear to be over yet, current market expectations for Bank Rate to climb to around 6% seem unlikely to come to pass.
That said, how the Bank of England perceives things will be key and, should it opt for a more hawkish stance, there is a real risk that interest rates could continue to ratchet up to a level where even the protection afforded by healthy household and business balance sheets isn’t enough to prevent a recession. On that count, the next few months – and what they tell us about just how sticky inflation and strong pay growth are – will be crucial.”
The path for economic growth could influence Rishi Sunak’s decision on when to call the next election, with senior Conservatives urging him to go to the polls in the spring.
Also coming up today
City minister Andrew Griffith is expected to write to the chief executives of 19 banks, building societies and digital challengers today, to warn them that regulations around politically exposed persons are “being applied in a disproportionate manner by some financial institutions”.
Griffith will summon bank chiefs for a meeting to discuss how customers can be protected from “being de-banked”, following the row after Coutts cut ties with Nigel Farage.
Travel firms and airlines are being urged to reimburse passengers who decide against flying to Rhodes as the Greek island is ravaged by wildfires. One leading consumer group arguing it would be “unconscionable” to withhold refunds.
A string of travel companies have cancelled package holidays to Rhodes, and are now scrambling to repatriate thousands of tourists.
Greek authorities have issued an evacuation order for parts of Corfu, after wildfires broke out on there too.
The agenda
-
9am BST: Flash estimate of eurozone manufacturing and services sectors in July
-
9.30am BST: Flash estimate of UK manufacturing and services sectors in July
-
1.30pm BST: Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the US economy
-
2.45pm BST: Flash estimate of US manufacturing and services sectors in July
