Less than six months before the US presidential election on 5 November, anxiety over the economy looms large. While official figures show a significant recovery since the pandemic, many Americans aren’t buying it. As election day approaches, the Guardian is dispatching reporters to key swing counties to gauge how they are feeling – and how they might vote.
Rows of pecan and peach trees frame the scenery throughout Peach county, Georgia, a rural area of central Georgia, about 100 miles south of Atlanta. A field of yellow school buses pack a lot on the way into Fort Valley, the county’s seat, where the buses used across the US are manufactured.
Peach county is a swing county in what has emerged as one of the most important swing states in the presidential election. And, according to a March 2024 poll conducted by Emerson College, the economy is the most important issue to Georgia voters. About 32% of those polled said the economy was their top priority, trailed by immigration at 14% and healthcare at 12%.
In 2020, Joe Biden won the state of Georgia by 0.2 percentage points. Donald Trump won Peach county by just over 500 votes, 51.8% to 47.2%. Emerson’s last poll found 46% of voters in Georgia currently support Trump to 42% supporting Biden, with 12% undecided – setting the state, and Peach county, on course for another nail-biting election where views on the economy will be key.
For Victoria Simmons, a retired local newspaper editor who lives in Byron, the economy is a top issue. “People can hardly afford to buy groceries and are losing hope,” she said. “We need to be focusing more on our own country rather than sending millions to places like Ukraine.
“If the election is fair and there is no tampering, I believe we will see a Trump victory,” she said.
Like many in the US, Anna Holloway, a retired professor in Fort Valley, doesn’t seem enamored by either candidate. She identifies as a “classical liberal” and campaigned and voted for the independent Evan McMullin in 2016, but voted for Biden in 2020 and said she intended to do so again.
“I am opposed to big government but voted for Biden and will do so again just because he’s less likely to fracture our political system than Donald Trump,” she said.
Inflation remains a big concern for everyone. LeMario Brown, 38, a former city council member in Fort Valley and local pecan farmer, has seen prices rise first-hand. It costs tens of thousands of dollars and years of work to get a pecan farm into production, not including costly and difficult to obtain insurance to cover any crop losses due to natural disasters.
“It doesn’t matter if we’re Republican or Democrat, we all got to eat,” he said.
He also knows how important just a few votes in the county can be. He came up short in the 2021 election for mayor of Fort Valley by just 19 votes.
Born and raised in Fort Valley, Brown explained the transitions in the area he had seen over the years and his hopes for improving the local economy and retaining young people and graduates of the local historically Black university, Fort Valley State University.
Brown has been involved with a local non-profit started in 2018, Peach Concerned Citizens, an organization focused on non-partisan civic engagement efforts including voter registration, increasing voter turnout, increasing US census engagement and responses in Peach county and surrounding counties, and educating voters so they have the necessary information to be able to vote and do so informed of who and what they are voting on.
“Most individuals are standoffish because politics are like religion,” said Brown. “They don’t want to offend, Democrats or Republicans, but most of the time once you engage a person from a social standpoint, they tell you what the issues are if you’re listening because it’s either they’re going to do what they want to do, or we don’t have enough money to do this, or my light bill or gas is too high, so if you listen you’re going to figure what issues you can actually tackle.”
For all this talk of crisis and the loss of hope at the top level, Peach county – like the rest of the US – appears to be doing well. The unemployment rate in the region is just 3.3%, below the US average of 3.9%. Inflation is also trending below the national average. But those macro trends don’t seem to be cutting through locally where people are still feeling the pinch of price rises on everyday living and interest rates seem stuck at heights unseen in 20 years.
With the state’s voters splitting evenly between Republicans and Democrats, the candidates are fighting for the 18% of voters Pew Research reported don’t lean either way.
“We have some independent voters and I’ve heard the stories of: ‘Well, it’s the lesser of two evils, Biden isn’t doing that, Trump is doing this, Trump is going to do that, Trump isn’t doing that, Biden will do that.’ It’s kind of mixed, but I think it all stems back to economics,” Brown added. “People want to be able to pay the light bill, put gas in the car, feed their family, the basic necessities of being a productive citizen in the community.”
But the economy will not be the only issue on the ballot come November. Georgia was also one of the main states where Trump supporters focused their efforts to try to overturn the 2020 election. And for Tim Waters, the chairman of the Peach County Republicans, the number one issue concerning voters in Peach county in 2024 will be corruption, from the local to the federal level.
The 2020 election “was stolen and everybody knows it was stolen”, said Waters. “They just keep up this lying nonsense.”
“People are sick and tired of the corruption from the absolute travesty of going after Donald Trump again and again and again. That’s why this cabal is trying to destroy this country. People are waking up to it. They’re sick and tired of it and they want change and they want it now,” said Waters. “That is absolutely what I’m seeing.”
“They’re still going to cheat again in the elections,” said Waters. “I do not trust the secretary of state. I don’t trust the attorney general of the state of Georgia, Chris Carr, and I do not trust the governor, Brian Kemp. He’s out there at Davos when he should be here focusing on his constituents.”
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Race will also be a big factor in Peach county. The county has a population around 28,000, 45% Black and 51% white. Racial and economic demographics largely segregate the county, the Black population centered around the county seat of Fort Valley, with the white, higher-income population predominantly concentrated in the parts of the city of Byron that fall in the county’s north-eastern boundary.
Democrats have traditionally won Black votes in Georgia by overwhelming margins. Trump has been courting Black voters despite a long record of racist remarks and some recent polls have suggested he is gaining ground with Black voters. Kattie Kendrick, a retiree and CEO of Peach Concerned Citizens, politely noted that Trump’s old remarks could be an issue come November.
“Back when I grew up in the country, all of the children played together. The thing I didn’t like, no disrespect to anyone, but when they turned 16, we had to call them mister and miss, but we were playing together all this time and all of a sudden,” said Kendrick.
She noted the resurgence of racism and division in politics, such as Trump telling the far-right extremist group Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by” during a 2020 presidential debate.
“I think what happened was it was there all the time, but they pulled the rug back, it became more of an accepted norm and it should never be. I don’t think people should be fake or phoney, but I don’t think we were put here to be mean to each other either,” added Kendrick.
She founded the non-profit in 2018 after she ran for a seat on the county commission in 2016 and noticed some of the civic engagement and outreach gaps in the region, in Peach county and other nearby counties as well including Crawford, Taylor, Marion and Lee counties.
Kendrick cited numerous issues facing the county, from economic inequities in development and resources and the pressing need for medical coverage, doctors and expansion of Medicaid.
“We have a lot of people who only believe they need to vote in a presidential election but the president doesn’t necessarily pave the roads, streets, the utility bills, so we try to get information out to the people where it affects them right now,” she said.
The Rev Leon Williams, pastor at the Fairview CME church in Fort Valley, knows that inflation has hurt people but he hopes that voters will put the current situation in perspective.
“We just came through Covid-19 where nobody could work, no products were available, so what do you expect when something like that happens? Prices are going to go up, products will be hard to find, supply will be limited, you expect this, it’s going to take time for us to get over that,” said Williams.
Voters should “listen to the parties and see what they say what they will do” and not all the negative attacks on the opposition, he said.
“Our main focus as I see it is to get the people out to vote, motivate people to get out to vote. That is who is going to win, the people more motivated to vote. The Black community, you don’t need to tell them how to vote, they can listen and see what’s being said,” added Williams.
As November’s election inches nearer, Williams worries about the already heated political environment and where it will lead. “I don’t like the direction everything is going right now. Of course, we have problems, but we can work them out,” said Williams. “Those who you divide and want to put down, where are you going to put them? We all have to live here, so we need to find some kind of way to get along instead of getting divided.”
