“We expect India’s GDP to double to $6 trillion before the end of this decade, making it the world’s third-largest economy,” it said. Household consumption then would be closer to $3-3.5 billion, or India’s GDP in 2022.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said India would become the third-largest economy during his government’s third term in office. The general elections in the country are due in 2024.
Standard Chartered assumes nominal GDP to grow at 10% for India to achieve this mark. The report further stated that the country would have nine states with per capita GDP of over $4,000, compared to one today, with six having a per capita income of over $6,000.
“Telangana, Delhi, Karnataka, Haryana, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, which together account for 20% of India’s GDP today, to have per capita GDP over $6,000,” the report said.
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar’s per capita income would have doubled to $2,000 by 2030, the report stated. The two states account for a quarter of the country’s population.While the report highlighted reforms, macro and political stability and healthy corporate balance sheets as drivers of sustained growth, it also noted that the government capex boost had paved the way for pick up in private investment.”However, fast-paced action is required to increase both employment opportunities and employability of the young population, especially in the age of AI,” it said, pointing out a need to reap its demographic dividend and address income inequality and climate challenges.
“India’s constructive outlook could face challenges from the simultaneous occurrence of high commodity prices for 4-5 years and delays in policy response in order to correct imbalances,” Standard Chartered highlighted as risks to outlook.
