Economists struck a note of caution, pointing out that the drop was largely due to the base effect of high inflation last year and that it could head back up in the coming months. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2023 was 7.44% while that in June this year printed at 5.08%.
Food inflation eased to a 13-month low of 5.42% in July from 9.36% in June, taking overall inflation below RBI target rate of 4% for the first time since September 2019.
“A large part of this decline came due to a high base from last year,” said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist, HDFC Bank. “For headline inflation, the monsoon progress in the coming weeks will be crucial to determine whether food inflation shocks subside.”
This is the lowest inflation print since August 2019. Last week, the RBI held rates, flagging the risks from “stubbornly” high food inflation. Economists do not expect any change in that stance soon.
