Humza Yousaf’s Scottish independence strategy struggles for coherence

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Good morning from Aberdeen, where I have been attending the Scottish National party’s conference. Earlier this week Stephen gave you a flavour of what the mood was going to be like in the north-east, with Scotland’s first minister, Humza Yousaf, presiding over his first conference as leader of the SNP with deep family trauma hanging over him.

The independence question

It would be going too far to say the situation in Israel and Gaza overshadowed everything at the SNP conference, but it was never too far away from conversations. I am not convinced, though, that it impacted Yousaf’s short-term leadership prospects.

In the wake of the electoral disaster in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, one of Yousaf’s predecessors and now leader of the rival Alba group, Alex Salmond, suggested that Yousaf had “days” to save his job. I saw no evidence that there was a coup that has since been postponed due to sympathy for the first minister’s family members who are stuck in Gaza.

There was much talk about how his response had boosted his stature as a leader. Another person commented that they “always knew he had it in him” but his leadership qualities had so far not been visible. That may explain why the atmosphere was more subdued than rebellious.

On the margins, it may have well helped to prevent a more aggressive expression of disappointment over the events of the past few months, although the divisions and the police investigation into the party’s finances predate Yousaf’s leadership. His proposed Scottish independence strategy remains unclear. 

But it seemed Yousaf managed to get away with his unconvincing claim on Sunday that the “process question” on how Scotland would achieve separation from Britain was settled. That was probably due to his willingness to compromise on the actual wording of the final resolution and a lively debate which, according to a delegate I spoke to, meant that people “felt heard”.

For some in the party, including Joanna Cherry, a longstanding party rebel, this would be another indictment of the SNP’s democratic culture, or lack thereof, under Yousaf’s predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon. For her part, the former first minister could point to the adoring reception in the main hall to argue that SNP members did not have an issue with her running of the party. 

But Yousaf’s strategy in itself does not take the party anywhere, and was still open to interpretation even among the most senior SNP members. 

More or less

Keith Brown, the SNP’s deputy leader, told his audience at conference that the rules for Scotland would be the same as for the Westminster parties — winning “most seats” in a general election would mean victory for Scotland’s main pro-independence party and a mandate to negotiate how to break up the UK.

The party had agreed the day before on a resolution that the standard would be a “majority” of seats, meaning that it would have to win at least 29 of Scotland’s 57 in the next general election, and Brown did also refer to winning a “majority” in Westminster as the test, seemingly using the terms interchangeably.

Either way, it is not hard to imagine the reaction of whoever is the UK prime minister next year if Yousaf arrives claiming he has a mandate not just for a second referendum, but to negotiate the terms of separation, because he has lost “only” 14 MPs (the SNP currently has 43 Westminster seats). 

Yousaf also seemed to recognise this. In his speech, he talked about needing to turn the half of Scots who support independence into a “sustained majority”, something the SNP has not managed in the almost 10 years since the “No” campaign won the first referendum by a margin of 55-45 per cent. 

So it’s unclear how he’s going to argue he has achieved that in the next year when he presents Scottish voters with an election manifesto in which “page one [and] line one” will say “vote SNP for Scotland to become an independent country”. 

Another problem is that the constitutional question does not seem to be at the top of Scottish voters’ list of priorities. The last quarterly “Understanding Scotland” survey by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute found that only 11 per cent of respondents cited the constitution or devolution as being among the top three issues facing Scotland. 

Mark Diffley, the founder of the polling company, said this was the joint lowest score they’ve recorded. The figure was 25 per cent back in October 2021. The SNP’s strategy is predicated on being able to convince enough voters that independence is central to dealing with the things they care about, which are the cost of living, healthcare, the economy and poverty. 

It is a brave call to think this can be done by the next election, and that is where the independence strategy holds real danger for Yousaf.

Now try this

Before travelling to Aberdeen, I took a trip down memory lane by watching Jane McAllister’s documentary on the 2014 independence referendum. Called To See Ourselves, McAllister follows her “Yes” campaigner father, Fraser, during the ultimately unsuccessful quest to convince waverers. 

The documentary does not attempt to answer the big questions about currency, the NHS or future pensions, and when former prime minister Gordon Brown is quoted raising the issues, this is done more to highlight negative campaigning by “project fear”. Rather, the documentary gives space to the personal stories and idealism of those involved. Having observed debates in Edinburgh during that period, it is nice to be reminded that people can be passionate about politics, and still be largely civil to each other.

A piece of music in the documentary also took me back to one of the soundtracks of my youth, so I spent some of the trip to Aberdeen listening to The Raw & the Cooked by the Fine Young Cannibals. McAllister’s film will tour Scotland next year and has an online premiere next month.

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