Human chronology samajhiye, India

The Indian cohort of people aged 65 years and older is going to double as a percentage of its population to 15% over the next quarter-century. This will be a fairly rapid transition by international standards and will halve the old-age dependency ratio to 4 – four workers supporting one senior – with the working-age population (16-64 years) budging little from its current level of 68%. India‘s population is set to peak by 2064 and it will be entering the longevity economy – which, by current estimates, is bigger than Japan‘s economic output – with certain advantages. Steady increases in life expectancy are balanced by a gradual decline in fertility, lowering demands on the government to provide for consumption by the retired workforce. Faster economic growth is also delivering gains in real wages that help bring down the labour participation rate among senior citizens.

As things stand, Indians provide for their retirement expenses through personal assets, followed by family remittances, social security and labour earnings. A more balanced approach is needed with higher involvement by the state in pensions and improvements in health and education to enhance work prospects for senior citizens. A country’s stage of development matters for its contribution to the longevity economy with age-related productivity declines among blue-collar workers being offset by gains among their white-collar brethren. India’s focus on the digital economy offers a pathway for investments in human capital, productivity and innovation to wean the consumption of older citizens off their savings.

Lifespan-enhancing advances in medicine have to be matched with improved healthcare delivery that moves towards prevention. Skilling needs to orient itself to prolonged workforce engagement that aids transition to a knowledge economy. Businesses have been more tuned to generational knowledge transfer among the workforce as well as to the altering consumption patterns of an ageing society. Governments are increasingly sensitising themselves to this demographic dividend.