Journeys from London to Manchester that use the new HS2 line as far as Birmingham could run slower as they continue north than existing services, and with less capacity, rail experts have warned.
And in a blow to Rishi Sunak’s plan to spend the money saved by scrapping HS2 north of Birmingham on other transport projects, the Observer has seen invoices suggesting the government will have to spend more than £1bn on work relating to the part of the line now terminated.
There is now concern among experts that the plan to allow HS2 trains to continue to Manchester on existing lines, as outlined by the former transport secretary Grant Shapps before Sunak’s conference speech, could adversely affect the service on the crowded west coast mainline north of Birmingham.
The longest Pendolino trains on the much-criticised Avanti service have 607 seats and can travel at speeds of up to 125mph due to their tilting mechanism. However, HS2 trains, which cannot tilt, would be limited to 110mph under current restrictions.
The trains to destinations north of Birmingham will also be half the size of those originally planned, comprising one 550-seat unit. The full HS2 trains require longer platforms than will now be available at Manchester’s Piccadilly station.
Philip Haigh, a writer on the rail industry, said: “The key to the capacity for HS2 was that they were going to run these two 550-seat units together.
“The platforms aren’t long enough at Manchester, so you will end up with … fewer seats. It’s cutting capacity.”
Haigh said it was likely upgrades to the railway track by 2030 would ensure HS2 could travel at higher speeds, but under the current restrictions the rolling stock would be slower north of Birmingham than existing services.
Sunak claimed in his conference speech that “every penny” of money saved would be reinvested in new projects. But more than £1bn in invoices had already been submitted relating to phase two of HS2, according to Tussell, a company that monitors government contracts. The money covers services such as environmental work, construction, utilities and civil engineering.
New polling suggests that while voters may favour Sunak’s decision to scrap HS2 in favour of investment in more local services, they are also very sceptical that the so-called Network North programme will ever be built.
When asked about Sunak’s decision to scrap the northern leg of HS2, 59% of people surveyed said they backed spending the money on other rail, road and bus projects and 62% said that doing so reflected better value for money. However, a majority (57%) said it was unlikely that Sunak would deliver the other projects if he won the next election.
With regard to voting intention, Adam Drummond, head of political and social research at Opinium, said: “After last week’s 10-point lead we’ve seen a reversion to the mean with Labour returning to the low 40s and the Conservatives staying relatively consistent on 29% and little sign of a post-conference bounce.
“In the data on HS2 we can see Rishi Sunak’s problem in a nutshell: voters have heard about the HS2 announcement, they are split on the decision itself but in the abstract overwhelmingly think the money would be better spent on other rail, road and bus projects. However, only 25% think it is likely that these projects would be delivered on.”
With fewer HS2 trains now planned to run, or be required, it is understood a £2bn rolling stock contract could be reviewed by the Department for Transport and the Treasury. The initial contract for 54 trains, with further orders due to follow, was seen as an important guarantee for skilled British manufacturing jobs in the Midlands and the north-east.
A joint venture between Hitachi and Alstom won the bid in 2021, with a 12-year maintenance contract attached. Train bodies are to be built first in the Hitachi plant in Newton Aycliffe – opened to great fanfare by George Osborne in 2015 – then fitted with Alstom equipment in Crewe, then fitted out at Britain’s biggest and oldest manufacturing plant in Derby.
The DfT spokesperson said: “Network North will drive better connectivity across the north and Midlands with faster overall journey times, increased capacity on the west coast mainline and more frequent, reliable services across rail, buses and roads.” It said HS2 train journey times would be faster overall.
