The rapid pace of technology is not only transforming our daily lives and work but also reshaping our understanding of peace and security. As 2023 draws to a close, we at the Innovation Cell in the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (UN DPPA) are closely monitoring four technology trends: Generative Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, Blockchain and the Metaverse.
Here are just a few evolving reflections on the potential impacts and challenges posed by these emerging technologies.
Generative Artificial Intelligence represents a subset of AI technologies focused on creating original content autonomously, marking a significant advancement in the broader field of AI. This cutting-edge technology holds the potential to elevate political analysis by identifying patterns and trends that might otherwise elude human detection. However, generative AI is not without risks. Inaccurate or incomplete training data may result in biased insights and the technology could be weaponised for large-scale disinformation campaigns. Vulnerable groups, already susceptible to existing online tools, could experience increased risks with generative AI, possibly exacerbating societal biases related to gender, ethnicity, or social class. The potential for this heightened weaponization of information is especially concerning in conflict settings. In July 2023, the United Nations Security Council held a session to discuss risks posed by AI for international peace and security. In October, the Secretary-General established a multi-stakeholder High-level Advisory Body on AI to undertake analysis and advance recommendations for the international governance of AI. As we move into the next year, we can expect to see more practical applications and international policy discourse on AI.
Quantum computing is poised to revolutionize research and innovation by processing complex information far beyond the reach of traditional computers. In October 2023, the world’s first quantum computer to exceed 1000 quantum bits was powered by a startup called Atom computing, which is more than double the computing strength of the previous record holder, IBM’s Osprey machine, which only has 433 qubits. However, quantum computing’s potential to compromise encrypted data, including intelligence and classified information, raises concerns. The race for quantum technology leadership (e.g. in December 2023, IBM outlined an ambitious roadmap through 2033, moving from a theoretical concept to a practical computational tool) echoes the competition for semiconductors, with potentially far-reaching effects on economics, national security strategies, and strategic influence. We expect to see more groundbreaking developments on the Quantum Computing front in the near future.
Blockchain technology, which underpins cryptocurrencies, continues to experience severe market volatility. While some countries have embraced cryptocurrencies as legal tender, others remain cautious or have banned them outright. Reports of cryptocurrencies being used for illicit activities, such as terrorist groups raising $130 million in recent years, have sparked debates about their impact on global security. The fluctuating value of cryptocurrencies also poses risks to the political economies of countries with weak regulatory frameworks. Despite recent scandals in the cryptocurrency sector, blockchain’s potential as a decentralized ledger indicates its continued influence on the future of the global financial landscape.
Despite slower-than-expected growth in 2022, the metaverse — immersive virtual spaces that simulate physical presence — is gaining traction as major tech companies have launched more applications and devices in 2023. Although the metaverse could offer new venues for dialogue, the lax regulatory environment might enable hate speech and disinformation campaigns to flourish on its platforms, similar to those plaguing social media. In March 2023, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) organized the first-ever international forum on the metaverse. The production of new metaverse-centric VR devices and applications is set to transform communication methods and societal interactions.
Predicting the future is impossible, but closely monitoring these emerging trends and sensemaking their implications for peace and security is essential. It’s important to remember that these implications are not uniform; they vary based on specific contexts, technology-power dynamics and ideologies. By considering these variations, we can better prepare for and anticipate potential challenges in our rapidly changing world. At the same time, these innovative technologies could offer unprecedented opportunities for transformative change, enabling us to ultimately build a safer, more peaceful world. At the Innovation Cell, through our collaboration with diverse interdisciplinary partners, we aim to be attuned to both the risks and the possibilities, always mindful of the unique circumstances that shape their impact.
