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HDFC Bank shares down 13% in 2 weeks. How to trade now?



Following a 13% downside seen in shares of HDFC Bank, the support has shifted to Rs 1,380. A decisive break below this level, especially on a closing basis, could trigger a renewed wave of selling in HDFC Bank shares, says Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities. Edited excerpts:

Nifty ended over 1% lower in the week, with heavyweight HDFC Bank leading the downside. The next week will be all about Budget and earnings. How are you placing your positions ahead of the Budget?

The index trend turned bearish after breaking below the crucial level of 21,800 with noticeable volumes. The prevailing sentiment remains in a “sell on rise” mode. The next significant support is anticipated at the 21,000 levels, where the highest open interest is observed for the upcoming series. The immediate resistance is situated at 21,500, and a breach above this level would be necessary for any potential change in the current bearish trend.

The fate of Nifty Bank seems directly tied to HDFC Bank. Do you see more pain ahead in both?

The Bank Nifty index experienced significant selling pressure in the past week, causing it to trade below crucial short-term moving averages. The next immediate support for the index is at 44,000, and a conclusive break below this level is likely to intensify the selling pressure, potentially pushing the index towards 43,000. For HDFC Bank, a key component of the index, the next support is identified at 1,380. A decisive break below this level, especially on a closing basis, could trigger a renewed wave of selling in HDFC Bank shares.

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How would you trade rail stocks in the run-up to the Budget session? Which ones can surprise?

Railway stocks have witnessed a remarkable rally over the past year, and although some profit booking has been observed recently, the broader trend remains intact. The current phase of healthy correction presents a good opportunity for investors to consider adding more long positions. Stocks like RITES and RailTel, particularly during any correction, could be attractive opportunities for investors looking to strengthen their long positions in the railway sector.

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Amid all the drama over the merger with Sony, shares of Zee have fallen 44% in January so far. Is it best not to catch a falling knife, or do you think the stock has bottomed out?

Given the lack of clarity in the current situation, making informed decisions becomes challenging. In the case of Zee, there are no discernible signs of a bottom at the current levels. Therefore, it is advisable to exercise caution and avoid making any investments in the stock at this time.

Give us your top ideas for Budget Day.

1) BUY PNCINFRA IN THE RANGE OF 410-400, SL-370, TARGET-460/500
PNC Infra has exhibited a robust bullish scenario, breaking out from a symmetrical triangle pattern on daily and monthly charts, accompanied by significant volumes. The momentum indicator, RSI, has confirmed this bullish momentum with a positive crossover. Additionally, on the daily chart, the stock has surged above a flag pattern, further substantiating the bullish set-up.

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2) BUY WSTCOATPAER IN THE RANGE OF 730-720, SL-695, TARGET-775/800
West Coast Paper has been consolidating within a wide range of 695 to 750, and there are indications of a breakout from this range. The momentum indicator RSI has shown a positive crossover, signifying bullish momentum. On the lower time frame, the stock has also broken above its 20-day moving average (20DMA) and found support at its 50-day exponential moving average (50EMA). Multiple bullish candle stick patterns indicate strong buying interest at lower levels which sets the bullish undertone.

3.) BUY GPPL AT 160, SL-150, TARGET-175/180
GPPL stock is exhibiting a bullish trend with a consistent pattern of higher highs, indicating a strong uptrend. Currently trading above its 20-day moving average, the stock demonstrates resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a positive crossover, further supporting a positive outlook. Investors may consider initiating a long position in the range of 160-163, setting a stop-loss at 150, and targeting levels of 175/180 for potential gains.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)



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