Introduction: “Good chance” UK fell into technical recession
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Britain may well have slipped into recession at the end of last year, forecasters at the EY ITEM Club believe.
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club said this morning “there’s a good chance” the economy may have shrunk slightly in the final three months of 2023.
That would mean two negative quarters in a row – after the 0.1% fall in GDP in July-September – meaning a technical recession.
EY ITEM Club have slashed their forecasts for growth in 2023 to just 0.3%, down from 0.6%.
Beck told Radio 4’s Today Programme:
We know that GDP – gross domestic product – shrunk in the third quarter and looking at the high frequency numbers for Q4, there’s a good chance that it may have shrunk slightly again.
The official GDP data for the October-December quarter are due on 15 February.
Headlines declaring the UK in recession would not be good news for the government, as the Conservatives try to plot a tricky path to another election win.
But, as Beck points out, “it doesn’t make a massive amount of difference to the person on the street” if the economy shrank by 0.1% or grew by 0.1%.
And looking ahead, EY ITEM Club are more optimistic about the UK’s future prospects, helped by slowing inflation and likely interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
Beck says:
We should end 2024 on a happier note than 2023.
The group now expects the economy to grow by 0.9% in 2024, up from the 0.7% growth projected in October. And next year, growth is seen hitting 1.8% (up from 1.7% forecast three months ago).
That’s better news for Rishi Sunak, and chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is working on his next budget statement which is likely to include tax cuts.
More here:
The agenda
Key events
25% rise in UK firms in critical financial distress
Accountancy firm Begbies Traynor has reported a sharp jump in businesses in ‘critical’ financial distress in the final quarter of last year.
Its latest Red Flag Alert report has found that there were more than 47,000 businesses near collapse in the UK at the start of 2024.
That’s a 25% jump on the 37,722 recorded at the end of Q3 2023, and the second quarter in a row in which critical financial distress grew by about a quarter.
Critical financial distress grew rapidly in the last quarter in the Construction (+32.6%), Health & Education (+41.3%), Real Estate & Property Services (+24.7%) and Support Services (+23.6%) sectors.
Begbies Traynor adds that “serious concerns” are growing about the construction and real estate sectors which still represent nearly 30% of all businesses in critical financial distress.
Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, says the ‘perfect storm’ of high interest rates, rampant inflation, weak consumer confidence and rising and unpredictable input costs are hitting every corner of the economy.
Palmer adds:
Now that the era of cheap money is firmly a thing of the past, hundreds of thousands of businesses in the UK, who loaded up on affordable debt during those halcyon days, are now coming to terms with the added burden this will have on their finances.
“For some, a better-than-expected Christmas may kick these concerns down the road for a little longer, but the rapid growth in the levels of critical financial distress point to an economy that is waking up to the danger of debt ladened businesses in a higher rates environment.
Share price surge helps largest hedge funds to biggest profits on record
Recession fears haven’t prevented top hedge funds from recording bumper profits last year.
New data shows the world’s most successful hedge funds made their biggest profits on record last year.
Punchy bets on stock markets paid off when share prices surged at the end of 2023, when markets were lifted by hopes of interest rate cuts.
The Financial Times reports:
The top 20 managers made profits for investors of $67bn in 2023 according to research by LCH Investments — up from the previous record of $65bn in 2021.
This performance cemented their dominance over the rest of the industry — the 20 hedge funds which have performed best since their inception manage 19 per cent of assets but they made around a third of annual profits last year, in dollar terms.
Billionaire money managers Chris Hohn and Ken Griffin led hedge funds to deliver one of the best years for clients in 2023, points out Bloomberg.
Today’s forecasts suggest the UK’s period of economic stagnation is slowly coming to an end, adds Hywel Ball, EY UK Chair.
Ball says:
Households and businesses are still facing a tough outlook in 2024, due in part to the lagged effect of interest rate rises, but slowing inflation and anticipated Bank Rate cuts should help build economic momentum as the year progresses.
Business investment, which has been disappointing for some time, is also expected to see a resurgence in the medium term, Ball adds:
A modest contraction is forecast for 2024, but this should be followed by a revival in capital expenditure in subsequent years. Falling inflation and declining market interest rates, coupled with the potential for additional tax cuts in the Chancellor’s spring budget, suggest the UK is at a turning point in 2024 and about to enter a more positive phase of growth.”
Introduction: “Good chance” UK fell into technical recession
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Britain may well have slipped into recession at the end of last year, forecasters at the EY ITEM Club believe.
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club said this morning “there’s a good chance” the economy may have shrunk slightly in the final three months of 2023.
That would mean two negative quarters in a row – after the 0.1% fall in GDP in July-September – meaning a technical recession.
EY ITEM Club have slashed their forecasts for growth in 2023 to just 0.3%, down from 0.6%.
Beck told Radio 4’s Today Programme:
We know that GDP – gross domestic product – shrunk in the third quarter and looking at the high frequency numbers for Q4, there’s a good chance that it may have shrunk slightly again.
The official GDP data for the October-December quarter are due on 15 February.
Headlines declaring the UK in recession would not be good news for the government, as the Conservatives try to plot a tricky path to another election win.
But, as Beck points out, “it doesn’t make a massive amount of difference to the person on the street” if the economy shrank by 0.1% or grew by 0.1%.
And looking ahead, EY ITEM Club are more optimistic about the UK’s future prospects, helped by slowing inflation and likely interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
Beck says:
We should end 2024 on a happier note than 2023.
The group now expects the economy to grow by 0.9% in 2024, up from the 0.7% growth projected in October. And next year, growth is seen hitting 1.8% (up from 1.7% forecast three months ago).
That’s better news for Rishi Sunak, and chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is working on his next budget statement which is likely to include tax cuts.
More here:
