From Russia a shove, Finland joins NATO

On Tuesday, Finland became the 31st country to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato). The Kremlin has predictably warned of consequences. Vladimir Putin is, indeed, the driving force of the current round of Nato enlargement. The flagrant disregard for a rules-based international order that has at its core respect for sovereignty of states as demonstrated by Russia vis-a-vis Ukraine, coupled with China’s constant testing of international norms, will see further growth of alliances such as Nato.

Through the Cold War, Finland remained neutral, partly because of its 1,340 km border with Russia. Even when former Soviet bloc countries were queueing up to join Nato in the late 1990s, Finland chose not to – though the policy of neutrality was officially abandoned in 1994, when it joined Nato’s Partnership for Peace and the EU in 1995. But the decision to become a full Nato member came with Russia’s push in Ukraine becoming a shove in February last year. Finland’s membership is a net gain for the US-led post-World War 2 alliance. Unlike other Nato countries, the end of the Cold War did not mean a reduction in defence expenditure for this Nordic country. Finland has well-funded, modern defence forces. So, instead of weakening Nato, Putin appears to have strengthened the alliance.

The war in Ukraine, irrespective of how it ends, will leave Russia weaker. Moscow will have to contend with a Nato that will border Russia from the High North down to the Black Sea. The post-Ukraine relationship between Russia and Europe will be contentious, as it strengthens the Russia-China ‘friendship with no limits’, which, in turn, will push countries beyond Europe to look for Nato-like alliances. Not something that should favour Putin’s cause.