On Monday, shares of First Solar (NASDAQ:) saw a 4% increase following the U.S. Department of Commerce’s announcement on November 29, 2024, regarding its preliminary affirmative determinations in the antidumping duty investigations. The investigations target Crystalline Photovoltaic Cells, whether or not assembled into modules, from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, which are also subject to concurrent countervailing duty investigations.
Piper Sandler has responded to these developments by increasing the price target on First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) to $250 from $210 while maintaining an Overweight rating. The firm highlighted that the antidumping duties from Southeast Asian countries, which account for more than 70% of U.S. panel imports, are higher than previously expected. This could be beneficial for First Solar as competing crystalline silicon (c-Si) tier-1 manufacturer pricing could rise significantly due to the duties.
The analyst from Piper Sandler noted that the duties could positively impact First Solar’s bookings in terms of both volume and price in 2025. This is anticipated as the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) under potential Republican control becomes clearer, possibly extending the period of higher average selling prices (ASPs). Additionally, if project delays occur in 2025, there’s an increased likelihood that First Solar could ship volumes from India to the U.S. market.
Meanwhile, RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and a $315 price target on First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR). The firm acknowledged the Commerce Department’s preliminary findings on the dumping of solar products from Southeast Asian countries into the U.S. market. According to RBC Capital, the significant dumping rates established for key importers should support U.S. pricing and could lead to a shift towards U.S.-based manufacturing. They estimate that with the assumed tariffs, import prices from Southeast Asia could rise substantially, which they view as favorable for First Solar.
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