Farage seizes his opening with benefit cap under pressure

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The limit that won’t last

The government is under mounting pressure over the two-child benefit cap (which blocks parents with more than two children from claiming a swath of benefit payments). From within, Labour MPs oppose it, including the two relevant cabinet ministers, Liz Kendall and Bridget Phillipson, the co-owners of the government’s child poverty strategy. From without, Nigel Farage is planning to pledge to scrap the cap as well.

The policy rationale is pretty obvious here. As I write in my column this week, the limit essentially restricts progress on child poverty. Lifting the cap is the single biggest thing the government can do if it wants to keep its promises on reducing child poverty. There is a reason why both the relevant ministers are keen to see the policy go.

The political rationale is a bit more complex. Labour MPs oppose the cap (I hear some variation on “I didn’t come into politics to increase child poverty” essentially every week). However, most voters support it (while, it must be said, also opposing increased child poverty.) Labour is not going to get very much electoral return on this.

The risk to Labour here is that, as I’ve written before and doubtless will again, yes, their promises on tax and spend could not possibly be reconciled with each other. They were always either going to have to tax more, spend less, or do a bit of both. Removing the two-child cap would come at a potential cost of up to £3.5bn a year by the end of the decade.

But the danger for them is that they are abandoning these pledges on tax and spend in a chaotic way — not through a popular and coherent shift in strategy, but one that is simply driven by the things that most animate Labour MPs and/or swing voters. And what most upsets swing voters and MPs on any given day in 2025 may not be what drives votes in 2029, or works best for the UK as a whole.

For Farage, opposing the cap is a good way to make himself look less rightwing and to look like he is shaping events. Most people think the government is going to have to retreat on the two-child limit, and therefore, Farage is creating the opportunity to say “look, where I lead, they follow. Look how moderate I must be”.

And he may well get that prize he seeks. But it’s not without risks for Farage, either. As the Economist’s Archie Hall notes over on his Substack, Reform’s manifesto is full of holes! Of course, if in 2029, most people in the UK feel things have never been worse and that the government is a busted flush that won’t matter. But frankly if people feel even a little bit better, Farage’s party is carrying a big vulnerability here when people turn their mind away from “how do I feel about the government?” to “how do I feel about the government compared to the opposition?” At that point their doubts about Reform’s spending plans and Farage’s suitability to be prime minister might just come roaring back.