ET Online Budget 2024 survey: The big challenge, best thing about India, one big missing trick & the reform everyone wants first

Budget 2024: In the lead-up to Budget 2024, amid growing speculation over what the new govt’s first budget would be like, ET Online ran a survey to get a sense of what our readers expected this year — the regular Modi template of the past 10 years, or a document that reflects the effects of coalition compulsion. During the runtime of the survey, nearly 9,500 ET readers took part and registered their responses to a range of questions that covered such themes as economy, jobs, taxes, etc.

In a clear sign that jobs continue to be the elephant in the room for India, more than half of the total survey participants said they considered unemployment as the top challenge for Indian economy at the moment. Inequality turned out to be the biggest issue for around a fourth (24.3%) of the respondents, while 16.3% said the economy’s top problem was rural infra, or rather the lack of it.

So, what is the best way that Budget 2024 can address India’s jobs problem? Well over half (54.1%) of the respondents thought that the budget should incentivise private job creators. In an acknowledgement of the key role that small businesses play in employment generation, as many as 32.2% thought the govt should set up more MSME units, while 9.5% participants regarded government jobs as the solution.

As regards income tax, well over half the participants (56.1%) were of the view that a tax cut is the one measure that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman needed to take after a weakened poll mandate for the BJP. The jobs issue made an appearance here too, with as many as 37.4% readers saying that what the FM needed to do first was take the jobs crisis head on in this Budget.

The survey had a question on what kind of tax rule change this Budget should ideally look at. A significant majority (comprising 53.9% respondents) said the govt should move all taxpayers to the new regime with exemptions for income up to Rs 15 lakh. Over a fifth (20.2%) said the exemptions under Section 80(C) and other sections in the old regime should be increased. As many as 14.3% participants wanted Section 80(C) benefits in the new tax regime, while 11.5% wanted the Budget to raise tax rates for higher slabs and cut the same for lower slabs.With India making serious attempts to take itself to the next level, which will be the quickest way to make India a developed economy?

Improving the skills of its workforce would be the quickest way to take the Indian economy to the next level and help the country join the select club of developed nations, a third (33.3%) of the total survey respondents opined. As many as 33.2% participants wanted the govt to focus on inclusive growth, while over a fourth (26.3%) said India needed to create jobs faster.

The middle class has got a raw deal in most recent budgets, and that could be the big trick India could be missing that the coming budget can address, a significantly large chunk (57%) of survey participants said. For just under a fourth (24.3%) of readers, failure to invest properly in education was the one big miss on India’s part. 11.3% participants pointed to the “misdirected subsidy regime”, while 7.5% singled out the neglect meted out to the healthcare sector.

For some time, consumption has generally failed to show the growth spark consistent with its stature as the prime driver of Indian economy. It is a matter of deep concern for policymakers, because 50-60% of India’s total growth is accounted for under this specific head. According to 47.7% of survey respondents, Budget 2024 can spur consumption in the economy by doling out direct tax sops. 27.3% participants want the Budget to raise public spending to push consumption. According to a little over 16% readers, a redistribution of wealth can do the trick. Just about 9% thought that more cash support for the poor was the way to go.

As regards the top source of optimism for the economy at present, 34.1% said it was the benign inflation print at the moment. As many as 29.6% respondents pointed to the forex reserve pool being “very healthy”, while 23.9% said the healthy balance sheet of businesses is the best thing about the Indian economy currently.

As for possible reasons for pessimism, more than half (51.4%) of the total participants thought “continuing jobless growth” could turn out to be a risk factor for the Indian economy. Global uncertainty was seen as a big likely risk by 22.9% of readers, while for 16.4% participants, coalition compulsion was the major fear factor.

With respect to reforms, a big chunk of respondents (43.8%) said the govt should bring direct tax reforms before all else. A fourth wanted fuel and alcohol to be brought under GST. Increased ease of business got the backing of 18.4% survey participants, while 12.8% backed a technology & AI push by the govt.