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For years, auto industry observers and policymakers have insisted that it’s a matter of when — not if — the automotive sector begins a wholesale shift from the internal combustion engine to the electric battery — only for electric vehicles (EVs) to remain a fraction of the new car market. But that day might finally soon be upon us, according to a newly released analysis.
Last year, sales of new electric vehicles in the U.S. skyrocketed by nearly two-thirds compared to 2021, but a decline in the overall number of new cars sold helped the American car market reach what could be a far more important metric: EV sales surpassed 5% of total vehicle sales.
Although that’s just one in 20 new cars, a Bloomberg study found that 5% appears to be a key threshold en route to broad consumer acceptance. Once a new technology reaches that milestone, the analysis shows, it tends to move from the early-adopter phase to the mainstream very quickly.
The report particularly highlighted the proliferation of the microwave: a rarity for decades after its commercial debut, it quickly became a part of nearly every kitchen in the 1980s. The model suggests that, based on trends in overseas auto markets, EVs could climb from 5% to 25% of sales in as little as four years.
The U.S. first eclipsed the 5% mark in late 2021, joining 18 other countries in Bloomberg’s previous analysis. The latest edition includes 23 countries, including newcomers Australia, Canada, Hungary, Spain, and Thailand. And India could join the list soon — putting the world’s three largest car markets on the path to electrification.
