DS Pai, a senior scientist of IMD, said the impact of El Nino is likely to be witnessed in the winter rains.
Winter rainfall is crucial for key rabi crops like wheat, chana and mustard. El Nino, an ocean-warming weather pattern that occurs every 2 to 7 years, was expected to impact the monsoon rainfall in the second half of this season. However, now it looks like El Nino forming earlier than initially expected.
IMD’s latest report has forecast El Nino development in June-August, while the Climate Prediction Centre of the US government in its latest report has said the El Nino conditions are already present and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the upcoming winter season in the northern hemisphere.
While IMD has given a forecast of normal monsoon this season with 96% of the long period average rainfall (with +/- 4% error), Pai said chances are that the monsoon rainfall may remain at the lower end of the forecast.
Besides this monsoon and upcoming winter rains, El Nino’s impact is also expected to be felt on the summer next year, Pai said while speaking at an event organised by brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher recently.
According to Pai, there are early indications of the hottest summer season next year as the El Nino is likely to subside only by May 2024.
Meanwhile, the delayed onset and subsequent sluggish progress of monsoon so far, partly due to the Biparjoy cyclone, have elevated prices of cereals and pulses in the country.
