The ministry of agriculture and farmers’ welfare has set up a system for specific advisory services and forecasts for the main agricultural belt of the country based on different rainfall scenarios. It will also come out with agromet advisories specific to different regions to help farmers take appropriate steps to mitigate any damage to crops.
It is in constant touch with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to prepare a specific plan of action for each region in the country. According to the forecast by the official weather office, some areas of northwest India, parts of west-central, and some pockets of northeast India are likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall this year.
“We are constantly monitoring the situation,” said a senior official adding that despite the chances of El Nino, the weather office has predicted a normal rainfall this monsoon season.
IMD has predicted a “normal” monsoon in the country this year with a 70% probability of El Nino in the June, July, and August this season and the probability rises to 80% in July, August and September.
However, the IMD also clarified that about 40% of the El Nino years in the past, from 1951 to 2022, were years with normal or above normal monsoon rainfall.
El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is usually associated with deficient rainfall during the monsoon season in India.
A deficient rainfall monsoon season raises concerns that the weather phenomenon could threaten agriculture, consumption, and the overall economy as more than half of agrarian India is dependent on rainfall for irrigation.
The monsoon is key to the country’s economic revival amid inflation fuelled by food prices. Adequate rains help boost crop output and lower food prices.
