Economists predict November cut to UK interest rates after wage growth hits two-year low; oil price slumps – business live

Economic confidence in Germany has improved this month, even though current conditions have worsened.

Economic research institute ZEW has reported that hopes of stable inflation, and cuts to eurozone interest rates, lifted optimism this month.

There are also hopes of a pick-up in exports to the eurozone, the USA, and China.

This has lifted the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany to 13.1 points this month, a 9.5-point increase on September.

But, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany continued to worsen – dropping by 2.4 points to -86.9 points. Nearly nine out of ten respondents assessing the current economic situation as negative.

I missed this earlier, but the estimate for total pay growth across Britain in May-July has been revised up to 4.1%, up from 4.0% reported last month.

That’s not insignificant, as this is the earnings data used to set the pensions triple lock.

Last month, we calculated that a 4% rise would lift pensions by £460 a year….

… If it’s 4.1%, that would mean a £471 increase to the annual pension.

UK business failures are on track to hit a 12-year high this year, new research shows.

Allianz Trade has predicted that UK business insolvencies will rise by 5% this year to over 29,000, a 12-year high and around 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Insolvencies are then set to plateau, predicted to dip to 27,500 in 2025 and 26,300 in 2026.

Alllianz Trade says:

Firms have been struggling over the past years due to the succession of shocks and challenges, from Brexit-related issues and the Covid-19 shock, to strong monetary tightening and sticky inflation

As the UK’s growth momentum should recover heading into 2025, we expect a gradual relief for firms that would translate into slightly lower number of business insolvencies.

Their latest global insolvency report also flags that major insolvencies have also reached a new record high level, with Western Europe leading this trend. This also poses a major threat to employment, particularly in Europe and North America, they point out.

Newsflash: The OECD Working Group on Bribery has cancelled a high-level mission to Hungary today, saying Budapest failed to engage with the visit.

The OECD Working Group on Bribery had been due to visit the Hungarian capital today and tomorrow, but scrapped the trip “after the Government of Hungary was unable to secure sufficient representation of Ministers and senior officials for the meeting”.

This is the first time a high-level mission has been cancelled, the OECD says.

The visit was set up to address the Government of Hungary’s failure to make tangible progress in addressing long-standing recommendations on bribery, it says.

The OECD explains:

These recommendations relate to the Government of Hungary’s lack of understanding of foreign bribery risk exposure, absence of strategy for proactively detecting and investigating foreign bribery cases, inadequate time to apply investigative measures and lack of legal clarity in relation to corporate responsibility for foreign bribery.

The Working Group also remains seriously concerned about Hungary’s low level of foreign bribery enforcement.

Back in January 2023, the OECD said Hungary should urgently implement long-standing OECD Anti-Bribery recommendations, enforce its foreign bribery laws and improve its engagement with the Working Group on Bribery. It warned then that no significant case of foreign bribery has been detected or investigated since March 2012.

There seemed to be enough in this morning’s UK employment data to justify a rate cut in November, says analyst Neil Wilson of Markets.com.

Wilson writes:

Average earnings declined to 4.9% from 5.1%; and whilst the unemployment rate ticked down, employment fell by 35k, and vacancies were down; at 841k now 36% below the March 2022 peak.

Look around and you can see the end of the worker power in terms of openings and pay growth.

Analysis: Cooling labour market adds to Reeves’s tax-raising dilemma

Larry Elliott

Today’s UK jobs report gives a clear sign that the labour market is cooling.

And that adds to the dilemma facing chancellor Rachel Reeves, as she ponders how she can raise taxes to pay for better public services.

Yesterday, Reeves appeared to hint that she will raise employer national insurance contributions in the budget later this month.

But that would push up the cost of employing staff, just as demand for workers appears to be falling.

Our economics editor Larry Elliott writes:

Make no mistake, the labour market is in pretty good shape. There are a record number of people in work and the jobless rate stands at 4%. The 14 consecutive increases in interest rates between December 2021 and August last year have proved less damaging to jobs than expected.

That said, dearer borrowing costs have still had an impact and that has arrived – as it usually does – after a lag. The number of job vacancies fell by 34,000 between July and September – the 27th drop in a row and 36% below its peak in May 2022.

Meanwhile, the number of payrolled employees dropped slightly in September. The latest figures also suggest companies have put hiring on hold until they know what Reeves has in store on 30 October. The British Chambers of Commerce and the Institute of Directors have said businesses were particularly worried about a possible NI increase in the budget.

Slower earnings growth reflects weaker demand for labour. Annual total pay growth – including basic pay and bonuses – stood at 3.8% in the three months to August, down from 4.1% for the previous month and less than half the 8% a year earlier.

Here’s Larry’s analysis:

The crude oil price has fallen sharply this morning, as fears ease that Israel might attack Iran’s oil facilities.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen by 4% this morning to $74.30 per barrel, a drop of over $3 per barrel. That’s its lowest level in almost two weeks.

US crude is also down around 4% at $70.80 per barrel.

The fall comes after the Washington Post reported that Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu told US President Joe Biden that Israel’s retaliation against Iran for its ballistic missile attack earlier this month will not include strikes on non-military sites.

That suggests Israel is willing not to strike Iranian oil targets, which eased fears of disruption to supplies from the Middle East.

Traders are also pricing in weaker demand for energy, after the Opec cartel yesterday cut its forecast for demand growth this year, mainly due to weaker growth in China.

Shares in oil companies have fallen this morning, with BP down 3.35% and Shell losing 2.4% in early trading.

Airline shares are soaring, though, with EasyJet up 4.3% and IAG (which owns British Airways) 3.4% higher.

A falling oil price will also help to ease inflationary pressures, making it easier for central banks to lower interest rates.

There were 9.26 million people classed as economically inactive (not working, or looking for a job) in June-August, today’s labour force report shows.

That’s a drop of 120,000 over the quarter, but still near to record levels.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall MP is concerned about the number of peopel out of work due to long-term sickness:

“To get Britain growing again we need to get Britain working again. Millions of people are locked out of work due to long term sickness. This is not good for them, for our economy or for the taxpayer.

“That’s why we will bring forward the biggest reforms to employment support in a generation – overhauling jobcentres, delivering a Youth guarantee so every young person is learning or earning, and new work, health and skills plans to tackle inactivity – unlocking opportunity and potential in every area of the country.”

ONS data has shown that the majority of people inactive because of long-term sickness were aged 50 to 64.

Health secretary Wes Streeting has suggested that new weight-loss jabs could be given to unemployed people to help them get back into work:

Several economists are predicting that today’s slowdown in pay growth will encourage the Bank of England to cut interest rates at its next meeting in early November.

Following the news that regular wage growth across Great Britain slowed to 4.9% in June to August, down from 5.1% a month ago, Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics, says:

The further fall in wage growth in August, together with some signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to widespread expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% at the next policy meeting in November.

Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at abrdn, says that “for now, another interest rate cut in November looks nailed on”, explaining:

“The labour market report is unlikely to move the dial much on interest rate expectations. Wage growth continues to gradually moderate, but still needs to come down further to be fully consistent with the Bank of England’s target.

As flagged in the introduction, a cut in November was already seen as an 83% chance. This morning, it’s inched up towards 85%.

Monica George Michail, associate economist at NIESR, says:

Easing wage pressures are supported by a notable fall in services sector pay growth, which recorded 3.6 per cent, down from an average of 5.6 per cent in the first half of this year. This is positive news for inflation and might provide the Bank of England with increased confidence regarding interest rate cuts”.

This time tomorrow we’ll be digesting the latest CPI inflation data, which will also have a significant impact on the Bank’s decision next month.

Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group, says:

“UK ex bonus wage growth cooled from 5.1% to 4.9% in the three months to August and vacancies continued to contract, while an untrustworthy LFS unemployment figure fell again to 4.0%.

“The headline here is that the trend in the labour market is still going in the right direction for 2% inflation, and that should support a steady stream of rate cuts from the Bank of England. Labour demand is cooling off and that is returning some slack to the market, which is bringing down wage growth, and that should filter through into the all-important services inflation figure over the coming months.

“The report certainly won’t deter the BoE from cutting in November, although tomorrow’s CPI figures are likely to be much more significant. Policymakers will take the hot unemployment figure with a pinch of salt – I’m not sure anybody is taking it seriously right now given the volatility and its contrast with other indicators.”

In June to August, the highest employment rate in the UK was in the South West (78.8%) and the lowest was in Wales (69.8%), the Office for National Statistics reports.

The highest unemployment rate was in the North East (5.6%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (1.9%).

The highest economic inactivity rate was in Northern Ireland (28.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (18.6%).

Companies are continuing to cut their vacancies – a sign that demand for labour is weakening, or of economic uncertainty.

Today’s jobs roert shows that vacancies in the UK decreased by 34,000 in July to September, to 841,000.

That’s the 27th drop in a row, as the hiring boom following the Covid-19 lockdowns continues to fade.

However, vacancies are still above pre-pandemic levels.

The UK’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest since the start of this year, today’s labour force report shows.

The jobless rate has dipped to 4% in the June to August quarter, its lowest since the three months to January.

The number of people unemployed dropped to 1.386m, a fall of 141,000 in the quarter.

In contrast, the employment rate rose over the quarter, to 75%, up from 74.8% last month.

The economic inactivity rate (those neither working nor looking for work), slowed to 21.8% from 21.9%.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.

Wage growth across Great Britain has slowed, as companies cut the number of workers on their payrolls.

Data just released by the Office for National Statistics shows that regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 4.9% in June-August, down from 5.1% recorded in May-July.

UPDATED: Total earnings (including bonuses), rose by 3.8% in the quarter, again slower than the 4.1% recorded a month ago (which has been revised up from 4.0% first reported).

This growth rate is affected by the one-off bonus payments made to NHS and civil service staff in June, July and August 2023, the ONS points out.

This data is closely watched by the financial markets, as it will influence how quickly the Bank of England can lower UK interest rates.

Last night, a rate cut – from 5% to 4.75% – is seen as an 83% chance by the markets.

Although wage growth has slowed, earnings are still rising faster than inflation.

Using the CPI inflation measure, regular real pay rose by 2.6% on the year, lower than the previous three-month period when it was 3.0%. Total real pay rose by 1.7% on the year.

The ONS also estimates that the number of employees on company payrolls fell by 35,000 in August, and by another 15,000 in September (that’s an early estimate, though).

David Freeman, head of the ONS Labour Market and Household Division, says:

“Pay growth slowed again, with last year’s one-off payments made to many public sector workers continuing to affect the figures for total pay. However, earnings continue to rise faster than inflation.

“Over the last three months the number of people on payrolls has stayed broadly flat. The Labour Force Survey shows a different picture and we would advise caution when interpreting changes in these data while we continue to improve survey responses.

“Vacancies have fallen once more, with most industries seeing a fall on the quarter. However, the total still remains a little above its pre-pandemic level.”

The agenda

• 7am BST: UK labour market report

• 10am BST: ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany

• 10am IEA monthly oil Market Report

• 1.30pm NY Empire State manufacturing Index

• 2pm BST: IMF begins publishing analytical chapters of its Global Financial Stability Report

• 2.30pm BST: World Bank to release report on poverty and prosperity