The main timetable is set: no new petrol and diesel cars will be allowed to be sold in the UK after 2030, and sales of all new hybrids will be forbidden from 2035. But that phasing still leaves open the critical matter – for the automotive industry, and for a couple of manufacturers in particular – of which new hybrids will be allowed to be sold until the last day of 2034.
Just the variety that comes with a socket – plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? Or should old-style hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius, which have smaller batteries charged by a main internal combustion engine, also be permitted?
Cue an almighty lobbying effort now that the government is finally promising an answer to a question that should have been settled years ago given the long lead times in vehicle manufacturing. A formal consultation was launched on Christmas Eve – and a decision is promised within weeks.
In one corner is Electric Vehicles UK (EVUK) – an industry group that, as its name suggests, is pushing for the adoption of electric cars as quickly as possible. It says the UK would be a “laughing stock” if sales of Prius-style cars are to survive after 2030, and argues that the impetus behind the rollout of charging infrastructure would be lost and “ramifications for the nascent EV industry and for fragile consumer confidence could be profound”.
It’s not an unreasonable argument. If the government is seriously committed to accelerating the growth of electric vehicles, every softening of targets adds to confusion. It’s just that the politics, one suspects, will prove too difficult for a government that simultaneously wants “a thriving UK automotive sector now and in the future”. The prediction here is that EV purists will lose this scrap over hybrids for two reasons.
First, the consultation document already seems to be leaning towards an emissions cap of 115g a kilometre that would allow many traditional Prius-style hybrids to survive. That would chime with some academic evidence that such cars sometimes produce less carbon than PHEVs when results are taken in the real-world of usage in crowded cities rather than in laboratory conditions. There is also the unfortunate reality that some owners of PHEVs don’t charge their batteries.
Second, what would a hard version of a post-2030 ban on sales of hybrids mean for car manufacturing in the UK? You won’t find the word “Burnaston” in the government’s 49-page consultation document, but it’s probably safe to assume that the future of Toyota’s Derbyshire plant, currently producing Corolla standard hybrids, will feature in ministerial thinking.
Fears for Burnaston have bubbled away for years if an early end to hybrids is ordered. In theory, there’s no reason why Toyota couldn’t switch the plant to all-electric models. In practice, it’s probably a bit late for that – the current Corolla production is guaranteed until 2027 but, under Toyota’s seven-year cycle for investment, the earliest all-electric model would appear would probably be 2034. If a hole is created by an early end to sales of standard hybrids, a closure becomes a greater possibility.
One could take the view that the government shouldn’t be beholden to the production schedules of a single manufacturer. But ministers also know that Stellantis blamed the closure of its Luton van factory on the government’s zero-emissions mandate (even if experts think the corporate thinking was more complicated). The political optics would not be good if a tough line on hybrid phase-out was followed by fresh worries over Burnaston. Pragmatism, not purism, is the way to bet.
