Dow gains more than 100 points Friday after strong earnings, averages headed for a winning week: Live updates – CNBC

Among the Group of 20 nations, headline inflation seems to have peaked, according to the International Monetary Fund. However, in most of the G20 countries, particularly the advanced economies, core inflation remains well above central banks’ targets.

“In the fight against inflation there are some early signs of monetary policy transmitting to activity, with bank lending standards tightening in the euro area and the United States. That said, policymakers should avoid ‘premature celebrations’: lessons from previous inflationary episodes show that easing policy too early can undo progress on inflation,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva wrote in a Friday note.

The IMF forecasts global growth over the medium-term to fall around 3%, lower than the historical average of 3.8% over 2000 to 2019.

— Hakyung Kim

Spotify appears to be still growing subscribers while cutting costs, which creates significant upside for the stock, according to Wells Fargo.

Analyst Steven Cahill hiked his price target on Spotify to $250 per share from $180. The new target is more than 40% above where the stock closed on Thursday.

“We dig deeper into the SPOT thesis and emerge even more bullish. [Monthly active user] growth, market share, cost cuts and margin drivers are starting to fire on all cylinders,” Cahill wrote in a note to clients.

Shares of Spotify were up less than 1% on Friday. The stock has already doubled this year.

—Jesse Pound

Energy stocks haven’t been able to sustain their momentum from 2022 into this year — but Globalt Investment senior portfolio manager Thomas Martin thinks the trend could soon reverse.

“It was a lot of concern about demand, whether it was related to China and their recovery not being as strong as people had thought it was going to be, and then also the chances for a recession here in the US. And as as those have been kind of incorporated into the market,” Martin said.

But with oil prices rising, energy stocks have recently shown “a little bit of life,” he added.

“To the extent that that that continues, and we do get a soft landing or a no landing you know, the the next move for estimates for oil consumption could be back in the positive direction. That’s why I think you’re seeing some of some of that [this week],” Martin added.

— Hakyung Kim

Energy was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 on Friday. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 2.7% as of Friday afternoon.

Nonetheless, the energy ETF is still positive 5.7% for the week and on track to close as the broad market index’s largest-gainer week to date. Materials posted the second-largest gains this week, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund up 4% week to date.

More than one third of the 32 stocks making new 52-week highs in the S&P 500 Friday are also trading at all-time records. Three of the 32 (JPM, V, CRM) are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Three of the all-time highs are homebuilders. And then there’s Nvidia, of course:

• Netflix, trading at highest since Feb. 2022
• Booking Holdings, trading at record high back to 1999 IPO
• D.R. Horton, all-time high back to 1992 IPO
• Lennar, all-time high back to start of trading in 1971
• PulteGroup, trading at all-time high back to its IPO in 1972
• CBOE Holdings, all-time high back to 2010 IPO ‎
• Intercontinental Exchange, highest since April 2022
• JPMorgan (JPM), highest since Feb. 2022
• Moody’s, highest since Feb. 2022
• S&P Global, highest since April 2022
• Visa, highest since August 2021
• Align Technology, highest since April 2022
• Cooper Companies, highest since April 2022
• DexCom, highest since Dec. 2021
• IDEXX Laboratories, highest since April 2022
• Intuitive Surgical, highest since Jan. 2022
• Steris, highest since June 2022
• Copart, all-time high back to 1994 IPO
• Masco, highest since Feb. 2022
• Rollins Inc., highest since 1968 start of trading
• Adobe, highest since Feb. 2022
• Ansys, highest since Jan. 2022
• Cadence Design Systems, all-time since predecessor ECAD went public in 1987
• Salesforce.com, highest since Feb. 2022
• Fortinet, all-time high back to 2009 IPO
• Gartner, highest since Nov. 2021
• ServiceNow, highest since March 2022
• NVIDIA, all-time high since 1999 IPO
• ON Semiconductor, all-time high since 2000 IPO
• Teradyne, highest since April 2022
• Sherwin-Williams, highest since June 2022
• Equinix, highest since Jan. 2022

Meanwhile, just five stocks fell to 52-week lows in the S&P 500 Friday, none of them records, although AT&T touched a 20-year low:

— Scott Schnipper, Christopher Hayes

UBS says the second-quarter earnings season could be lackluster.

“Based on our expectations for earnings beats, we look for a 3–5% year-over-year decline in S&P 500 EPS, which could be the trough for the earnings ‘recession,'” UBS head of U.S. equities David Lefkowitz wrote in a July 11 note.

Meanwhile, Lefkowitz added that upside in the near term for equity markets could be limited due to higher valuations, stronger market sentiment meaning less money will “come off the sidelines,” higher economic surprise indexes as well as weaker fundamentals and soft economic growth.

— Brian Evans

Although Wall Street is on pace for a positive week, the breadth is “awful,” according to BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky.

“Another day, another rare divergence. There is no other way to spin it. NYSE breadth is awful so far, with the A/D line -1240 and 77% of NYSE volume in declining stocks,” Krinsky wrote in a Friday note.

“Since we have data back to ’08, we can find only one other day when NYSE downside volume was 75% or higher, and the SPX closed green. That was 8/19/21. That was actually a bottom after a four-day pullback, so not really relatable at all to the current set-up, more just a sign of how rare today’s action is,” he continued.

“Small-caps are at the heart of the weakness, down over 1%,” Krinsky noted. He added that even if small-cap equities turn more bullish, they became extended in the near-term view.

“Ultimately these negative divergences will matter, and with the SPX above its upper Bollinger band (4512), we should be close to an inflection here even if it’s only short-lived,” Krinsky said.

— Hakyung Kim

Stocks could continue to gain momentum in the week ahead as traders turn their attention to earnings results after the past week’s softer inflation news. 

The major benchmarks are headed for a positive week Friday after encouraging consumer and wholesale inflation in June cemented the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its rate-hiking campaign. Traders see a 95% certainty the Federal Reserve will hike at the central bank’s July meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. They’re 81% sure the Fed will stand pat in September.

“I think the Fed is kind of locked in for another hike,” said Sage Advisory’s Rob Williams. “But given this inflation data, I think they’re kind of one and done.”  

CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.

— Sarah Min

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Friday that inflation will likely prove to be sticky from here and remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, in part due to strong labor demand.

“I think we’ve seen a low in inflation, and I think inflation can be sticky between 3 and 4%. And if I’m write about the job creations and the need for labor and how that’s going to elevate wages, we’re going to be in a period of 3 to 4% inflation, which will translate into a Fed that I think is going to be reluctant to turn off their platform of raising rates,” Fink said on “Squawk on the Street.”

Fink also said that prices for energy, housing and used cars could start to rise again in the coming months.

— Jesse Pound

Here are some of the companies making the biggest moves during midday trading:

• JPMorgan Chase — Shares fell slightly even after the bank reported stronger-than-expected results for the second quarter, as it benefitted from higher interest rates and better-than-expected bong trading.
• UnitedHealth — The health care giant popped nearly 7% after topping expectations for the second quarter on both the top and bottom lines. UnitedHealth also upped the lower end of its full-year guidance.
• Citigroup — Shares of the New York-based lender fell 2% even after the firm reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations. Despite the beat, Citi’s revenue fell 1% from a year ago as the decline in markets and investment banking businesses weighed on its results.

Read the full list of stocks moving here.

— Samantha Subin

Even after a strong start to the year, Citi is placing its bets on a handful of software stocks poised to capitalize on generative artificial intelligence tailwinds.

CNBC Pro readers can read more on the Wall Street firm’s top picks, including two names it views as wrongfully deemed AI losers.

— Samantha Subin

The strong setup for Microsoft shares can’t be overlooked, UBS said.

Analyst Karl Keirstead upgraded the technology stock to buy from neutral and raised his price target by $55 to $400. Keirstead’s price target reflects the potential for an upside of 16.7%.

“We upgrade Microsoft shares to Buy from Neutral on evidence that Azure/AWS cloud infrastructure spend is beginning to stabilize after a significant deceleration over the past year,” he said in a note to clients Thursday. “We believe this, coupled with near-term AI catalysts as well as the material underperformance in the stock since May 1st, make the set up too attractive to maintain a neutral view of the stock.”

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Alex Harring

Las Vegas Sands is a good way to play the Macao reopening, Morgan Stanley said.

Analyst Stephen Grambling named the stock a top gaming pick. His $71 price target means he believes the stock could have an 18.1% upside from where it finished Thursday’s session.

“We see it being the best way to play Macau and one of the final consumer recovery stories coming out of Covid,” he said in a note to clients Friday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his thoughts on the stock here.

— Alex Harring

Shares of Wells Fargo have slumped into the red after jumping at the open. The stock rose as high as $45.31 in early trading on the heels of a beat on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter, but is now back below $44 per share.

Increased competition and lead cables could pour water on any comeback for AT&T shares after a recent bout of underperformance, according to JPMorgan.

Analyst Philip Cusick downgraded the telecommunication stock to neutral from overweight and lowered his price target by $5 to $17. However, his price target still implies shares could rally 12.4% in the next year.

“We worry that the repeated downward revisions for its key wireless and fiber growth businesses, the high interest rate environment, and new uncertainty regarding lead sheathed cables will limit any substantial rebound,” he said in a note to clients Friday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can click here to read more.

— Alex Harring

The iShares U.S. Health Care Providers ETF (IHF) is up more than 3%, putting it on pace for its best day in nearly a year.

The ETF was last up about 3.1%. If that performance holds, it will be the best session for the fund since July 15, 2022, when it finished 3.7% higher.

UnitedHealth led the index higher with a nearly 7% gain following a strong earnings report. Elevance Health followed, up more than 5%.

Friday’s rally helped put the fund on track for a winning week. That marks a turn from last week, when it finished 2.8% lower.

— Alex Harring, Gina Francolla

The remarkable run for homebuilder stocks is likely to stall out during this earnings season, according to JPMorgan.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF is up about 38% year to date, and JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut said in a note to clients that the good news for the sector is now priced in to the stocks.

“We expect the builders to largely hold on to their recent strong gains but not grind higher, as while strong 2Q results and further positive earnings revisions are likely, we believe this is already anticipated by investors and reflected in the stocks,” the note said.

— Jesse Pound

Bitcoin Coin Metrics is up 3.3% week to date, putting it on pace for its first positive week since the week ending June 23, when it jumped 17.1%.

Ether Coin Metrics is higher 7% this week, on track for its third positive week in four weeks and its best week since June 23, when it added 10.6%.

Coinbase jumped over 33% week to date and is headed for its fifth-straight weekly gains and week since March 17, when it surged 40.3%.

— Hakyung Kim, Gina Francolla