Prime Minister Keir Starmer is yet to seal the deal with the electorate. They may not think much of Sunak but that could change in the weeks and months ahead.
Most governments are loathed between elections, but their support tends to firm up as polling day arrives and voters consider the alternative. Sunak is due a lucky break. He could get five.
1. The cost-of-living crisis will ease. Life has been tough for millions of Britons as the cost of almost everything goes through the roof, forcing Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to unveil a string of Cost of Living Payments.
When people feel poorer, politicians get the blame. Yet the Bank of England (BoE) is more at fault for the inflationary spike than Sunak. As are post-Covid supply shortages and Vladimir Putin‘s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered the brutal energy shock.
Inflation has now dropped sharply for two months in a row, and stands at 3.9 percent. It could even drop below the BoE’s target of two percent this year.
Mortgage rates are set to continue falling, easing the pressure on more than a million homeowners whose cheap fixed rate will expire this year.
By year end, the BoE could have slashed base rate six times to 3.75 percent, further easing the pressure.
2. We may avoid a recession. No PM wants a recession on their watch, and astonishingly, the UK has avoided one over the last troubled 18 months. That’s pretty good going, given that the BoE had predicted the UK economy would shrink for five quarters in a row, including all of 2023. It didn’t.
It’s going to be a close thing, though. The BoE now reckons there is a 50-50 chance of recession, although given that it’s the world’s worst forecaster, that may offer Sunak some comfort.
The BoE’s claim that we will see zero growth this year also seems unduly negative, and shows it still hasn’t learned from its many mistakes.
3. Tax cuts are coming. On Saturday, the nation will get a tax cut. Or at least, 27 million of us will, thanks to Hunt’s decision to slash 2p off National Insurance from January 6.
This will save the average basic rate taxpayer £304 a year, rising to £647 for higher rate taxpayers.
Hunt is likely to green light more tax cuts in his upcoming Budget on March 6, possibly cutting inheritance tax or even knocking a penny off income tax.
Voters aren’t fools. They know Sunak and Hunt have driven our tax bills to post-war highs through their six-year tax threshold freeze, and this will only partly reverse that. It may help, though.
4. NHS waiting lists will fall. A year ago, Sunak pledged to cut waiting lists, then at a record high of 7.2million due to Covid lockdown delays. Today, they’re heading toward eight million, but could start falling by March.
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Waiting lists are expected to peak in the summer but may could start falling afterwards, depending on the impact of junior doctor strike action.
A wave of flu or resurgent Covid could wreck Sunak’s hopes. Another risk is that waiting lists do fall, just too late for voters to notice.
5. Immigration will drop. Another Sunak pledge was to “stop the boats” and despite huge scepticism, there are signs that he is doing just that.
As the Express reported today, small boat arrivals fell 36 per cent last year, from 45,774 in 2022 to 29,437, and Sunak has vowed to “work day and night” to end the problem.
Net migration hit a record 745,000 in 2022, terrifying voters, but the figure was inflated by Hong Kong and Ukraine settlement schemes, and the numbers are falling fast.
Again, the question is whether they’re falling quickly enough. As with any government, events could suddenly turn against Sunak’s administration.
The odds are still heavily in favour of a Labour victory, but it’s not the surefire thing its followers would like to believe.
We don’t know when Sunak will call the election, but given how things are slowly turning his way, he’ll be tempted to leave it as long as he can. December sounds about right to me.
