Let’s explore some technology predictions for 2024. Artificial intelligence (AI) will become widespread in the business world, prompting regulatory initiatives by the European Union and the United States, and efforts to rein in the top AI tech companies. Lithium, copper and nickel — crucial elements for electric vehicle batteries — will surpass oil and gas, which contribute to climate change.
Onward. Clinical trials for “long Covid” treatments will get underway. Brazil will start up a factory to produce modified mosquitoes to combat dengue on an unprecedented scale. CRISPR genome editing will expand to address more hereditary diseases. El Niño, an erratic cycle of warming and cooling in the eastern Pacific, will contribute to new global temperature records. The European elections in June may strengthen nationalist and far-right parties opposing the transition to renewable energy. The November elections in the United States will shape policies regarding climate change, pandemic preparedness, innovation and immigration.
While there’s no doubt that all these things are very significant, isn’t there something missing? Not something specific, but rather an entire range of topics that are perhaps even more essential? Take a moment to ponder this.
What’s missing is basic science, my friend. The predictions mentioned above are examples of applied science, in fields such as medicine, technology and environmental management. We culled them from various scientific and news websites, so it’s logical that they’re about urgent, real-world problems. If you were a writer predicting groundbreaking experiments to determine the mass of neutrinos, readers would promptly skip to the sports section and trolls would roast you on social media.
Opinion polls revealed a significant rise in public support for science during the pandemic, primarily due to the utilitarian aspect: science develops life-saving vaccines. If the Covid-19 vaccines had proven to be ineffective (a distinct possibility), this support would have diminished instead. And that’s not what we want. Applied science, whether for medicine or technology, has undeniable value. Basic science lays the foundation for applied science. Without this groundwork, there would be nothing to apply.
The Covid-19 vaccines arrived just in the nick of time thanks to decades of dedicated work by Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman, the 2023 Nobel Prize winners in Medicine. Their extensive research on messenger RNA paved the way for the Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough, despite few people recognizing its potential. While these two scientists may not have won the Nobel if the vaccines hadn’t been successful, the quality and value of their basic science is indisputable. It’s easier to fund applied science, but investing in basic research is the real challenge. That really gives meaning to the term “venture capital.”
The pharmaceutical industry that dominates Western democracies serves as a clear example. The industry only invests in new treatments when there are indications of short-term applicability. Therefore, public financing is needed for the early stages of development, which are characterized by an inevitable trial and error process. These early stages, filled with promise and frustration, lay the foundation for future pharmaceutical investment. Funding basic science transcends a mere commercial calculation.
The distinction between science and technology is clear from a philosophical standpoint. Science seeks to understand the world, while technology aims to transform it. But the distinction is often unclear. If Kepler and Galileo hadn’t invented the telescope, physics wouldn’t have made progress, just as biology would have faltered without Robert Hooke’s microscope. Yet, both the telescope and microscope are based on a fundamental knowledge of optics. Nevertheless, major advances in scientific knowledge always precede technological innovation, so let’s not neglect basic science.
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition
