The most commonly accepted idea in the cryptocurrency market is that Bitcoin (BTC) always pumps in price after the event known as ‘Bitcoin Halving’, which cuts the block subsidy received by Bitcoin miners by half. But this crypto analyst has a different theory, believing that, this time, it’s going to be different.
CrediBULL Crypto, a Twitter (X) account with over 340 thousand followers posted his controversial analysis on August 10.
“Why the next BTC halving in April/May 2024 will likely mark our bull cycle TOP rather than the ‘start’ like many are expecting and why we will likely be in the depths of a MAJOR bear market by 2025.”
His theory is backed by historical data, assuming that Bitcoin is still in a bull market cycle that started in 2018 — with BTC being priced at $3,000 — rather than the commonly accepted cycle of 2020. CrediBULL also believes that this cycle hasn’t ended, and expects to see a higher top than the $69,000 of November 2021.
This is not a new theory by this crypto analyst, though. As reported in a post on July 1, CrediBULL went against the common market expectation of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 2021 — calling for a retrace to $40,000 instead, that was exactly what happened.
What is next for Bitcoin on market cycles
Considering the current cycle in the analyst’s view (2018-2024), each bull run (or “impulse”) was followed by a retrace, followed by a consolidation phase. Each consolidation phase was then followed by the next “parabolic move”, lasting fewer days than its previous consolidation phase.
We can see this data in the chart:
- $1,100 range: 104-days, first consolidation phase (2019)
- $9,500 range: 81-days, first impulse (2019)
- $8,000 range: 207-days, second consolidation phase (2020)
- $52,000 range: 180-days, second impulse (2021)
- $16,400 range: 272-days, third consolidation phase (2023)
- New all-time high range: should last less than 272 days, third and final impulse (2024)
This analysis is aligned with the ‘Elliot Wave’s cycles theory’, a well-known Technical Analysis (TA) indicator. The first wave (1) starts in the first impulse in 2019, followed by a retrace (2) in 2020, a new impulse (3) in 2021, reaching the last retrace (4) as our current phase, in anticipation for what could be the last impulse (5) — according to Elliot Wave’s 12345 theory.
CrediBULL Crypto then predicts the start of a “secular bear market”, that will surprise many investors, waiting for even higher prices after the Bitcoin halving by April and May 2024.
Bitcoin price analysis
Meanwhile, BTC was, by press time, changing hands at the price of $29,555, suggesting a decline of 1.18% on the day.
All things considered, the crypto asset’s ability to meet the above analyst’s expectations will depend on further developments related to Bitcoin, as well as the general sentiment on the wider crypto and macroeconomic landscape.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
